(This article first appeared on Arab News at https://arab.news/yxwte)

What are the predictions for the performance of the US economy in the year 2024? Will it be a year of economic growth or recession? And how will the status of the US economy next year affect the outcome of the presidential elections in November?
The American economy is likely to slow in early 2024 because consumer spending is going to score low figures. Inflation is still high. Inflation this year was less severe than the previous year. However, it is still burdensome on the income of most US households. The typical economic rule is that when inflation is high, consumers slow their spending to save money. Weak consumer spending relates to negative or low rates of economic growth, according to a study conducted by the US.
From the US Chamber of Commerce: “The economy grew over 5 percent in the third quarter of 2023 and is tracking to grow over 1 percent in the fourth. Growth is projected to slow even further in 2024. For instance, the chamber projects the economy will grow a scant 0.2 percent and 0.4 percent in the second and third quarters, respectively. That is a far cry from growth in the third quarter of 2023.”
Yet, other economic reasons could deepen the sense of economic malaise in 2024. Many Americans were able to save money during 2020-2022. This was during the COVID-19 pandemic that caused a state of national and worldwide shutdown. People saved money by working from home, economizing their energy and transportation expenses, and benefiting from several federal and state benefits that were given to American households to help them fight the economic hardships of that epidemic. Unfortunately, most US economists believe that the pandemic-era savings are completely spent. As a result, credit card debts will rise sharply in 2024. More credit card debts entail higher interest rates. This could slow down further consumer spending.
Inflation is still more than the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent benchmark. It is a remote possibility that Fed Gov. Jerome Powell will take the measure to lower interest rates. This means that money borrowed from banks and other financial institutions will be paid through higher interest rates. The Fed Reserve has not found an ideal way yet to control and tame inflation.
High inflation in the US economy is related to many factors. Foremost among them is the worker shortage. This influences the supply of commodities and services. Little supplies of items to be bought mean a bigger demand and higher prices. The US economy is not expected to produce enough employment to compensate for this workforce shortage in 2024.

American politics is not helpful to the state of the current US economy. Congress must pass the budget for 2024 and 2025. Any failure to conclude a budget deal, especially in reaching an agreement on how to raise the debt limit before January 2025 could have very negative repercussions for the US economy.
In addition, there are other negative forecasts for the US economy. The real estate market could see plummeting economic indicators. Office space is being rented now at a much lower rate than what was the case before the pandemic. These real estate companies owe banks money. This could deepen the credit crunch further. Most of these banks loan money to small and middle-sized businesses. If banks are loaning people and institutions less money, the Fed must intervene to prevent the collapse of more banks and to dismiss any lack of confidence in the US economy.
Business investment is expected to be slow. According to a study by the investment bank, Goldman Sachs, business investment is expected to grow 1.75 percent in 2024. Mainly, the CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act are the two congressional acts that are the biggest drivers for business investments. The CHIPS and Science Act is a US federal statute signed into law by President Joe Biden on Aug. 9, 2022. The act earmarks around $280 billion to help investment in high-tech manufacturing items, especially those related to investments in semiconductors. Therefore, the status of the US economy depends on how successful these Federal investments will be in generating new jobs and in creating good economic opportunities in general.
Geopolitics could have ramifications for the American economy. No one knows what the future holds for the war between Russia and Ukraine. If it continues, it will hurt the global economy due to the low supply of wheat and other essential agricultural products. Worse, is the absence of any clear sign of when Israel’s war of aggression against Gaza will end. These two critical developments are very serious handicaps to having a healthy global economy and a well-performing American economy next year.
The American people’s experience in the next few months will be one of living with a slowing economy. This will not be helpful to Biden and the Democrats. They could face a big political defeat if the American people judge the economy of their nation as struggling through a recession that must end.

• Maria Maalouf is a Lebanese journalist, broadcaster, publisher, and writer.
X: @bilarakib

The late Sheikh Zayed Al Nahyan, the founding father of the United Arab Emirates, said: “The endeavors undertaken by women in the Emirates are important and bright and deserve appreciation.”

Women are an essential pillar in building societies and a pillar for balance. The Emirati leadership has experienced these facts. They have worked since the establishment of the Emirates to achieve that role and empower Emirati women to play the role assigned to them, and this was expressed by the founding father, the late Sheikh Zayed Al Nahyan, who encouraged The first is for her to play her role and preserve her rights in full. Emirati women have always been an essential and influential element in the march of the UAE’s progress and an integral part of its societal structure. They work with Emirati men to enable the UAE to achieve its lofty aspirations and undertake unparalleled achievements. It is the second wing with The wing of the man who flew the Emirates toward the summit.

It is worth mentioning that since the establishment of the Emirates, the wise leadership, headed by the founding father, Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan, has realized the importance of Emirati women and their ability to achieve and has succeeded in employing and benefiting from their capabilities, as women have proven that they are up to the responsibility and showed their ability to balance family tasks and daily professional burdens…

Emirati women have achieved achievements in all fields, from education to work in the most challenging professions. Women have proven their success in establishing their role in the past, present, and future of the Emirates politically, economically, and socially, so they were qualified to assume leadership positions. Here, Shamma bint Suhail bin Faris Al Mazrouei recalls me. The function of Minister of State for Youth Affairs and Vice President of the Arab Youth Center, she was the youngest minister in the world when she took office at the age of twenty-two in 2016. Her Excellency Reem bint Ibrahim Al Hashemy, Minister of State for International Cooperation and Director General of the Expo 2020 Bureau, and Emirati women. She sits on the Executive Board of the Advanced Technology Research Council. In the 2021 Gender Gap Report of the World Economic Forum, the UAE jumped 48 ranks at once in a year, as its level rose from 120 to 72 in the global gender gap index and ranked second in the world in the index of equal pay between the two genders at the same work.

The forward-looking and confident vision of the Emirati leadership contributed to the UAE’s ranking first among the Gulf Cooperation Council countries in the field of gender equality, as the number of women members of the Federal National Council increased. Nora Al-Matroushi was chosen to be the first Emirati woman to join the UAE space program and to become Thus the first female astronaut in the Arab world.

This is not to mention that Emirati women tended to focus on scientific disciplines, technology, engineering, and mathematics, and if we go back to the numbers, we find that a third of all university graduates in the UAE are women, and 77% of them hold degrees in computer science, 44% in engineering and nearly half of the graduates are female. Female university majors in the field of information and communication technology.

In addition, women in the UAE occupy 75% of the total jobs in the education and healthcare sectors, and approximately 23,000 Emirati entrepreneurs manage projects worth more than 50 billion dirhams. As for the diplomatic service, Emirati women occupy about 20% of the country’s representation positions in the diplomatic arena. In the United Nations, women occupy 15% of all places on the boards of directors of chambers of commerce and industry.

The UAE is the first Gulf country and the second in the Arab world to launch a national strategy for the empowerment of women, and this is what we notice through the decision that raised the proportion of women’s representation in the Federal National Council to 50%. Within the context of the Emirati strategy for women’s empowerment, Abu Dhabi embraced the launch of the “Arab Declaration to Combat All Forms of Violence against Women and Girls between Text and Ways of Implementation” in the presence of Minister of Community Development Hessa bint Issa Bu Hamid, Minister of Community Development, and Arab and European figures and the United Nations.

Accordingly, we conclude that the future holds promising horizons for Emirati women who have set their sights on solving upcoming challenges that may seem “impossible,” as that word does not exist in the Emirati dictionary.

*The views in this article are the express opinions of the author

Maria Maalouf is a journalist, broadcaster, and owner of the capitol Tv show from Washington DC. She holds an MA in Political Sociology from the University of Lyon. You can find her on Twitter @bilarakib

The UAE’s President, Sheik Muhammad Bin Zayed, met in Moscow with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin amid much turmoil in international politics. There is American anger at the OPEC decision to cut oil production by 2 million barrels daily.

There is also a war going on between Russia and Ukraine. The Biden Administration should positively view the active diplomatic role of the United Arab Emirates and the wise statesmanship of Muhammad Bin Zayed.

The Emirates is not changing its relationship with the United States. The Emirates is sending a message to the world that it is possible to engage Russia gradually in world politics again and discuss with its leaders seriously how to end its war with Ukraine. There is no need to misinterpret the diplomacy of the Emirates. It allows Russia to change its behavior and terminate the war soon. For sure, there are diplomatic difficulties approaching Russia. One recent American commentator described Russia as a failed state. Contrary, the Emirates still sees a role for Russia in world politics, and there could be a good purpose in returning Russia to the world community of nations and in ending the global boycott of her. The capacity of the U.A.E is that it can help revive Russia’s economic ties with the West. It is significant to notice that the Emirates is the only nation where the Russian national airliner Aeroflot still operates. The Emirates understands that it is wrong to isolate Russia entirely. An isolated Russia with dangerous weapons is a lethal prospect in world politics.

Russia needs the Emirates because the Kremlin leaders feel that it is safe to talk to Muhammad Bin Zayed and discuss with him a full and heavy schedule of critical stakes in international relations. On the other hand, the Emirates still maintains excellent relations with the United States. It buys a lot of American weapons. The two countries have prospering trade and investment relations. Yet, the best quality about the Emirates is that it can assume new foreign policy tasks. Previously, it succeeded in thwarting the dangers of the Muslim Brothers reaching power in Egypt and many other countries in the Arab World. Now, it has the task of assessing the strategic implications of the failures of the collapsing regime of the Ayatollahs in Iran. The Emirates’ public ethics is one of religious tolerance, and its ethos has sympathy with the truth. Therefore, it will have excellent insights into what is going on in the tumultuous state of affairs in Iran at present and shortly. Hence, it is a must for Biden’s White House to listen carefully to how the Emirates is probing and monitoring the deteriorating situation inside Iran.
Ultimately, Sheik Muhammad Bin Zayed is a realist in foreign policy. He knows how to articulate the national interest of his country very well. He does not intend to play Russia against America or vice versa. His methods of diplomacy are straightforward and honest. He is working to promote strategic stability in the Gulf. America should not steer itself away from the Emirates because its President went to Russia. America should comprehend the Emirates’ foreign policy steps and imitative as profoundly impactful foreign policy endeavors.

*The views in this article are the express opinions of the author

Maria Maalouf is a journalist, broadcaster, and owner of the capitol Tv show from Washington DC. She holds an MA in Political Sociology from the University of Lyon. You can find her on Twitter @bilarakib