Coming clean after years of thinking I’ve been right — courtesy of our modern day gladiator-scholars.

---

A few weeks ago, I was on an early morning flight from a major football city back to my sunny desert home. The man occupying the seat next me had his social media sitting up, and I accidentally caught a glance at his name. After finding it familiar, I ran a search and found that this guy was a starting NFL defensive back for a very popular franchise with fans scattered from coast to coast. He sat swiping on Instagram and liking videos with Democrat politicians and supportive celebrities championing woke mind virus causes.

I have to admit, I felt sheepish writing a bestselling newsletter focused on American political process and clean elections — and definitely about having recently published a book that was weeks away from being promoted by the President of the United States himself. I was in the presence of unmatched brilliance for four hours, and in that period, I was forced to confront my beliefs.

Does hating mail-in ballots make me racist?

Is selecting Congressmen on the basis of color actually more important than content of character?

Do we expect too much accountability for domestic violence in the NFL?

Then it all hit home for me in a very uncomfortable way. You see, that’s our guy up there. I don’t mean the President — I mean Jaxson Dart. After Dart’s teammates were offended by him exercising a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to introduce the sitting president, I couldn’t help but challenge all of my long-held positions. Since there are so many of you who read this newsletter who pay to receive the full offering of analysis, I have no choice but to be transparent.

To this point, I have considered these things instrumental in shaping my worldview and political acumen:

• Parents who educated me on current events and political implications from a young age
• Growing up in a conservative culture that stressed application of faith to one’s worldview
• Service in the military with deep immersion in foreign policy and intelligence strategy
• Long-term approach to success made possible by my interest in baseball
• Statistical mindset honed while working as a baseball statistician and combat-deployed officer, which directly influenced my ability to discern electoral trends

Now — it’s all hanging in the balance. For the first time, I am wondering if chasing an inflated pigskin around a grass or artificial field intricately programs a man to be an expert in all things political. Perhaps there is a method to this madness — that players can support exclusively left-wing political concepts under the guise of freedom and in the name of anti-racism, while simultaneously and righteously crucifying teammates for exhibiting public support for someone holding different viewpoints.

It doesn’t matter that a city choked out by illegal immigration (is anyone illegal on stolen land, anyway?) will suffer economic decay, impact the middle class, which would like to attend football games, and contribute to lower revenues which equate to lower pay and contract opportunities for the players supporting liberal politicians. Perhaps their virtue can’t be bought?

Perhaps I’ve been illogical and immature to have concerns about the lives of crime lived by so many NFL players. Even if their rates of domestic violence arrests are more than double that of the average 25-29 year old man, maybe the women deserved it, or worse, made racist comments while not recognizing the sheer brilliance of young Americans dealing with the onset of brain damage at such a young age to discern the American electorate in a way 77 million of their countrymen cannot.

After all, a life of largess lived with the benefit of multi-million dollar contracts affords them more time to swipe reels and consume that which the algorithm demands so they can be fully aware of everything we don’t know. These teams hire these professionals just as much for their brains as they do their ability to run an arbitrary distance at a great speed, slam their bodies into someone, and do it all again 30 seconds later. When I recognize my privilege and put it all together, maybe my decades of dedication to understanding the world and challenging what I thought was the status quo pales in comparison to these life experiences so few of us get:

• Hitting blocking sleds
• Diving on a rolling football (very weird bounces can happen)
• Banging heads with your teammates after a big play
• Punching other players in the face mask with your own hands if an altercation occurs
• Catching the inflated pigskin
• Running with an inflated pigskin and trying not to get caught
• Kicking (!) the inflated pigskin

Arizona has a political candidate, Jay Feely, who is running a Republican campaign as a friend of the Clinton Foundation whose experience under pressure comes from attempting to kick inflated pigskins between yellow bars. That automatically means he is on a rendezvous with destiny to become our Commander-in-Chief. These players are staring down other multi-millionaires on a field for 3 hours on Sundays before heading home to beat the shit out of their wives and girlfriends. We are out here trying to operate successful businesses that hemorrhage a third of their revenues to this government that we thought used it for nefarious purposes. Perhaps we are all just racists and should listen to the true pros.

In all seriousness…

Yes, this piece has been a satirical one. You don’t need to adjust your glasses or unsubscribe.

It wasn’t so long ago that those pros could attend a ceremony with a president they didn’t like, do the deed, shut the hell up, and go home. Plenty of conservative-minded athletes visited the White House under Presidents Obama and Biden, zipped their mouths, and went on their way. Abdul Carter probably couldn’t list ten American presidents, yet wants to start the New York Giants out on a toxic note because the team’s de facto leader carried out a life experience he’ll never forget, or regret.

The NFL is a trash product with dead weight losers filling the rosters. It looks the other way on domestic violence, drug use, and rampant criminality while painting “end racism” in the end zones while they should be investing heavily in making sure the reprobates in the pads have access to something else to channel aggression into other than the gold diggers who take the beatings at home after the modern-day gladiatorial spectacle.

Dear NFL — shut the f*** up.

---

Seth Keshel, MBA is a Fellow at the Gold Institute for International Strategy and a retired Army Captain. He publishes Captain K’s Corner on Substack.

My monthly update capturing true approval ratings from 7 critical states in the most fireproof analytical model there is.

Author’s Note: For a summary of why voter registration by party is so important, and to understand the importance of these states and why each were selected for this recurring study, please see the March 2025 summary.

---

FLORIDA

Net Shift Since May: R+8,830

If you’d like to understand just how screwed Democrats are long-term in Florida, consider the fact that most states in this sample of seven are showing (or have shown) some signs of life for Democrats, even if only for the run-up to primary elections. This is not happening in Florida at all, as Democrats fell further back in May than they did in April.

Florida’s drift is predictive for Pennsylvania and Michigan since 1952, portending good things for future GOP campaigns in both of those battlegrounds in the next presidential election. Florida appears to be emerging as the premier GOP superstate, passing Texas (although not in order of importance by electoral votes and House seats).

IOWA

Net Shift Since May: D+1,953

April’s shift was the first technical gain for Democrats in raw registrations since I’ve been tracking these figures, but they still managed to fall further back as far as percentage of voter registration thanks to maintenance that winnowed both parties’ memberships. In May, Democrats made their first legitimate gain since I’ve been covering these on a monthly basis, both in raw numbers and by percentage.

The pro-Democrat shift is tied exclusively to the Iowa primaries, which concluded last week. Republicans made nice gains as well, so I would wager this is a blip in a long-term trend, not a reversion of Iowa to battleground status. Democrats were nominating statewide candidates and four U.S. House candidates, while Republicans were only nominating two House candidates.

Iowa has two competitive U.S. House races this year; most importantly, the state tracks with Wisconsin and Minnesota as a proxy, given that those two states don’t register voters by party. The majority could be won or lost for the GOP depending on how IA-1 and IA-3 shake out.

PENNSYLVANIA

Net Shift Since May: D+4,008 Total, D+5,668 Active

The best news you’ll read in this month’s report, believe it or not, is that Pennsylvania’s figures only reflect the gains above. They are down from the past two months because the Pennsylvania primaries have come and gone — as I’ve been predicting and noticing in county-by-county numbers.

Just as I explained last month, these numbers do not make sense based on registration trends elsewhere, even in places where Democrats are making temporary gains. In fact, I see no possibility that Oregon should be making Republican gains (it is) but Pennsylvania would be having a genuine change of course unrelated to an approaching election. Most of this shift appears to be Philadelphia-centric, and validating my point is the fact that Erie County has shifted Republican in the last quarter (since the February update), and Northampton County is generally treading water. There does not appear to be a legitimate coalition shift away from MAGA in Pennsylvania with the working-class voter.

Republicans have held their own in the two weeks since primaries ended, and the Erie and Northampton bellwethers are largely unchanged. Party switchers have favored the GOP in the past two weeks, and I suspect the bleeding will stop moving forward. Pennsylvania sits significantly to the right of its November 2024 numbers.

NORTH CAROLINA

Net Shift Since May: R+179

The North Carolina GOP again made a narrow lead in the voter roll with primaries in the rear view mirror. The overall lead is now 116,616 to the right of the former GOP deficit at the time of the November 2024 election.

With former Democrat Governor Roy Cooper running for U.S. Senate, Republicans need all the help they can get. I consider the GOP-held seat in North Carolina the most likely to flip to Democrats in 2026, with Michael Whatley the Republican nominee.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Net Shift Since May: No Update

New Hampshire releases quarterly updates, and no update is due until August.

The Granite State remains the most likely Republican flip for the 2028 presidential election, and has several important races on the ballot in 2026, like a U.S. Senate seat and the battle for NH-1, which Democrat Chris Pappas will vacate to run for said Senate seat.

ARIZONA

Net Shift Since May: No Update

I can view registrations change weekly in Pima County and around-the-clock in Maricopa County, but am now shifting this model to update on official Secretary of State releases, which come quarterly. This is to ensure the whole picture is painted, rather than having you see it through glimpses — which can either be overly encouraging or discouraging in these incomplete blips.

Democrats have been making up significant ground in Maricopa County with primaries around the corner (July 21), but I suspect that is the why here — not a long-term reversal of electoral trend. Arizona’s statewide offices are up for grabs this year, and the Democrats have a real shot at flipping the legislature for the first time since the 1960s, so the battle for voter registration looms large.

NEVADA

Net Shift Since May: D+2,135

June 9 is almost here (Nevada primaries), and with it, we should see an end to the monthly Clark County onslaught. Clark was again responsible for nearly the entirety of Democrat gains in May. Republicans cling to a narrow voter registration edge of +3,609 — or +12,809 right of when Trump won the state by 3.1% in November 2024.

Nevada has its statewide offices up for grabs this year, plus at least one potentially competitive House seat. With over two-thirds of the statewide vote coming from Clark County, it is an obvious focus area for the GOP that must not be neglected.

---

Seth Keshel, MBA is a Fellow at the Gold Institute for International Strategy and a retired Army Captain. He publishes Captain K’s Corner on Substack.