Media slowly adjust expectations and point viewers right where I’ve pointed them for over a year

I’d like to open the week with a little bit of a “humblebrag.” On Friday afternoon, I received a package from the White House. Inside I found a copy of my book, The American War on Election Corruption, signed by President Trump along with a wonderful letter.

I had dropped the copy off with one of the President’s aides after I saw him (President Trump) in Florida in May, and I’m very pleased to have received it back with such a nice note that will be passed down someday to my children.

Since the President’s address on election interference Thursday, that book has surged again.

I didn’t step up for accolades or recognition, however. I jumped into the fray in 2020 because I knew our elections were in a state of despair significant enough to jeopardize our entire national future. I have continued to wield a heavy hammer on elections in the years since, and still get flak from the corruption enablers in the media. Democracy Docket has a particular axe to grind with me:

“All hell is going to break loose with the president’s address Thursday on election interference,” Seth Keshel, a leading anti-voting activist, wrote on social media. “It will compel action and make the pressure to pass the SAVE America Act overwhelming and will mandate change at the highest levels,” Keshel added.

If Marc Elias still thinks I’m worth crapping on, I suppose there’s still gas left in my tank for decrying electile dysfunction, and I remain a worthy adversary of those who wish to subjugate us through the corruption of the voting process. I have remained on point, rarely straying from what I know best. Because we suffered under the rule of Joseph R. Biden, Jr., for four years and are currently swimming upstream against the Murkowskis of the world and never-ending Democrat lawfare, the repairs to our electoral system are taking a long time; long enough, in fact, that the most critical ones are at risk of not happening under the Trump 47 administration.

This means that all of my electoral assessments are made with the corruption of elections accounted for. Remember, the laws of the various states dictate what types of ballot counts and, by extension, candidate performances are possible. I can feel good about Iowa with its strong voting laws in the same election cycle I feel bad about Washington, with its ballot collection free-for-all that is certain to impact the WA-3 decisive seat the GOP candidate is polling well in.

I’ve been directing traffic on the 2026 midterms since the infant days of the Trump 47 administration, which terrifyingly is already three-eighths of the way to completion. Believe it or not, I am already taking on questions regarding the next two election cycles. I have come to realize that election season is an enduring thing that never really ends, kind of like how the NFL season proliferates itself through the calendar in unique ways.

I’ve had to make some changes to the electoral math because of the various redistricting changes impacting 10 states:

AL, CA, FL, LA, MO, NC, OH, TN, TX, UT

My assessment for those, cumulatively, goes as follows:

+12 GOP
+5 DEM
3 toss-ups

That makes +7 net for the GOP, pending the outcomes of CA-48, FL-25, and TX-34. It’s safe to say, thanks to the scrapping of the Virginia quasi referendum, that the GOP won the redistricting war – but we all know legislatures in Georgia, Mississippi, and South Carolina didn’t go far enough or we’d probably already have this year’s race in the bag.

On that note, the winds are blowing early. Normally we don’t get hedging until after Labor Day. I’m referring to the period in which media blowhards come up with something like, “It looks like voters are coming home and sticking with the GOP after all, and perhaps Wyoming isn’t due for a blue tidal wave after all.”

“Because of Redistricting, analysts estimate that Democrats need to win by 3 to 4 points to gain a majority in the House. Per WSJ. 2026 Generic congressional ballot — Democrats: 48%, Republicans: 45% (Washington Post/Ipsos poll, 7/9-7/13).” — OSZ (@OpenSourceZone), July 18, 2026

MSM reporters are starting to follow suit as the so-called “generic ballot” tightens:

“Right now, the most likely outcome for Democrats would be winning anywhere between 214 and 228 seats. In roughly three-quarters of those scenarios, they would have a majority in the House.” — @ercovey (linking Cook Political Report: ‘Democrats Remain Narrowly Favored for the House; CPR Moves Six Races in Their Favor’) — Chris Cillizza (@ChrisCillizza), July 16, 2026

Right now, the generic ballot sits at D+4.7% (meaning Democrats turn out at a rate 4.7% greater than Republicans). However, factoring in just the last six polls, all within four points, we see D+3.0%. Like our presidential races, Democrats being packed into blowout districts requires them to find the widespread appeal they lack in order to win the decisive seats. We have never held a midterm under the current boundaries in what is the most tightly gerrymandered national map ever produced, so no one really has any idea how big the Democrats would need to win the House popular vote to pull a bare majority (218 seats). Most people, like Cillizza above, are thinking 3-4 points at minimum. Makes a lot of sense when you look at the reality of it all.

My safe forecast (seats highly unlikely to be competitive) calls for 203 Republican seats and 187 Democrat seats, which accounts for 390 of 435 seats. I can then “lean” 22 more seats I have a feel for (but in which an upset could potentially happen), and I wind up with 209 Republican to 203 Democrat.

The problem with the broad brush analysts, or pure propagandists, is that they don’t get granular with the analysis. They take a generic ballot and try to apply it to maps that have seats cut so much to favor one party and try to make it work – like sticking a CD into a VCR. Folks, it doesn’t matter if the generic ballot turned out to be D+10.0% or if gas wound up at $9 per gallon in November – Georgia is going to produce 9 GOP seats and 5 Democrat seats.

My forecast informs me that Democrats, presumably at 203 seats (to the GOP’s 209 seats) before addressing the 23 decisive seats, have an absolute cap of 226 seats (203 + all 23 decisive). Looking at which seats I have listed as decisive seats, I can assure you they won’t win all of them (AK-AL and ME-2 are daunting tasks), meaning their likely ceiling is in the low 220s already. The GOP, at a likely 209 after leaners, has a higher potential ceiling, maxing out at 232 seats if they won every decisive seat – which they almost certainly wont.

So, the stars are aligning like this:

Democrat ceiling of 226 seats, floor of 203.
Republican ceiling of 232 seats, floor of 209.
Neither party has a high ceiling or low floor.

I feel confident that the winner of the House majority will hold between 218 and 223 seats, barring a major change in forecast or world conditions between now and Election Day (election season is here in less than two months thanks to mail-in ballot nonsense). Because the GOP has a higher ceiling, the pressure is on the Democrats. Every day, more bad news:

“PA CD-8. Bad news for the Dems. Shop owner & ’24 US Sen nom Leila Hazou (Green) jumps into race vs US Rep Rob Bresnahan (R) & Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti (D). This race is a top Dem target.” — Politics1 (@Politics1com), July 19, 2026

Most folks were already thinking Rob Bresnahan in PA-8 has the best chance to hold one of the three decisive seats in the Keystone State (with PA-7 and PA-10 being the other two). A Green candidate is only going to harm the Democrats, who will have the benefit of a Josh Shapiro reelection blowout as a tailwind. Then we have articles like this:

“Gov. Katie Hobbs is considered the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in a swing state that’s been on the 2020 election denier frontlines for years.” (USA TODAY: ‘Trump ally seeks makeover ahead of critical Arizona governor’s race’) — USA TODAY (@USATODAY), July 19, 2026

After months of phony polling, now we have Andy Biggs about to win a huge primary victory tomorrow and start on the warpath to dethrone the “veto queen” of Arizona, Katie Hobbs. Hobbs has wasted substantial money already, and now her race isn’t the slam dunk it’s been made out to be. All of this leads me to one conclusion:

This is a rare midterm opportunity for the President’s party to make gains, and that can only be done if we get serious about micro-targeting the races that can be won. I have been mapping precincts and districts for these decisive seats, and also for separate counties. If you want to sponsor that work for your campaigns locally, contact me at skeshel@protonmail.com.

The new media – the ones that get it right – are the ones with a consistent track record of being right. Hopefully the media hedging happening right now gives you confidence that you are subscribing to someone who “gets it.” Thank you for all of your support; now let’s go take some scalps.

Seth Keshel, MBA is a Fellow at the Gold Institute for International Strategy and a retired Army Captain. He publishes Captain K’s Corner on Substack.