(This article was written by Derk Jan Eppink and appeared in Wynia’s Week. In Brussel heeft Mark Rutte weer een nieuw masker opgezet)
With his speech on 12 December in Brussels, Mark Rutte, the secretary-general of NATO, has put on a new mask, namely that of the hawk. The location was the Concert Noble on the Aarlenstraat, the glittering palace that was once in the hands of the Flemish Farmers’ Union.
The speech sounded alarmist, as if the Russians are on the doorstep. Alarmism was earlier the method in Dutch energy and climate policy, which is currently bogging down in high costs and economic stagnation. Rutte made a Call to Arms amid the glittering mirrors.
The speech was short and powerful, in the American model. The security situation was undoubtedly the worst in his lifetime, said Rutte. He then painted a picture as if all of Europe could be overrun by Russia at any moment. It sounded 1930s-like: Putin was trying to wipe Ukraine off the map. He was trying to push through a fundamental change in the European security architecture that had given us decades of security. He was trying to crush our freedom and way of life. His pattern of aggression was not new. But for too long we did nothing, we did not act. Georgia in 2008, Crimea in 2014.
In Brussels Rutte said little about the prior history. However: he became prime minister of the Netherlands in 2010 and advocated, just like the German chancellor Merkel at the time, a good relationship with Putin. They kept that up for a long time. For Rutte that relationship only ended with the downing of MH-17 on 17 July 2014. Merkel went on longer with the German Ostpolitik, and only got that thrown back at her after the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. The cry of the hawk sounds somewhat shrill without self-reflection about that past.
With the new job comes a new mask. The explanation began on 22 November when Rutte paid a visit to the newly re-elected American president Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago, his lavish residence in Florida that has meanwhile become a place of pilgrimage for heads of government, friends and opponents, especially from circles of progressive media who want to cozy up to him. Rutte got his job description worked out in more detail: ‘Europe must pay more to NATO, otherwise….’ There then follow a few reflections that are obvious to some Republicans, such as ‘Europe should just sort it out itself’. In Congress there is, in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, a large majority for NATO as a security pact. That enthusiasm is declining, however, if America has to pay the lion’s share.
Thus Rutte was given the clear task: The current norm of 2% is not sufficient. It must go to 3% and preferably even 4%. That is a difficult story for Rutte because Europe worked itself into the economic pit with the energy and climate policy that was once sold to citizens with alarmist stories and scenarios about the end of the world.
According to Trump, that policy is a ‘green scam’ that he himself is going to abolish in America. The voters supported him. Trump is also going to complete the wall between Mexico and the US to stop illegal immigration. Europe, meanwhile, is in the middle of a migration crisis that has produced angry voters and shaky governments.
Germany and France, the two core countries of the EU, have elections in prospect. The German government of Olaf Scholz has fallen and the French prime minister Michel Barnier has been sent home by the French parliament. And then Rutte comes along with his 3% norm; actually the Americans want 4% but at that percentage the new secretary-general applies some fabric softener for now.
He sees no other way out than an alarmist emergency bell: the Russians are coming! Perhaps not in person, but via digital routes to shut down banks, airports, hospitals or ministries. That was his mission on 12 December in Brussels. For the tribute the notables were jostling: the Dutch minister of Defense Ruben Brekelmans, a sympathetic person who, to my knowledge, has no military experience. Fortunately he immediately got support from the, as Trump calls them, ‘television generals’. And of course the highest-ranking Dutch military officer at NATO, admiral Rob Bauer and the current Commander of the Armed Forces (CDS), Onno Eichelsheim.
It is of course a killjoy who nitpicks about that, but the two senior officers served at the time of prime minister Rutte and cooperated, in the best case reluctantly, with the demolition policy that the Rutte cabinet implemented on Defense. Only the then minister of Defense, Hans Hillen (CDA) resisted, but was told by the furious prime minister that he had the choice: comply or resign. The Netherlands sold all its tanks. Among others to Finland, which has recently become a NATO member. So our tanks are, after all, standing at the eastern border of NATO.
For an alarmist message a lot of alarm is needed to create social support. That is being put in position, such as with the announcement that citizens must keep cash at home. In case of digital attacks on banks whereby you cannot withdraw money. Probable culprit: Russia. That is possible, but the strange thing is that beforehand the government advocated precisely the opposite: only card payment was safe.
Queen Máxima was even sent out to promote ‘digital money’, among others in the Third World. If possible a ‘digital euro’ should come that makes cash superfluous, because the latter makes tax evasion easier. In the Netherlands it is now mainly card payment, but in our neighboring countries cash is still king. Now Rutte’s alarm bell is sounding and cash gets a chance again after all. Because… the Russians!
I agree with Rutte that NATO is the cornerstone of our security policy. Is NATO in a bad position? No! After the Russian invasion of Ukraine the number of members has grown to 32, among others with Sweden and Finland. Working in the army is popular again in the Netherlands and socially accepted. The latter has sometimes been different. Our Eastern European allies such as Poland keep strong armies on their feet. With article 5 of the NATO treaty in their pocket, the 3 Baltic states sit protected.
I once worked in the Brussels cabinet of the Estonian EU Commissioner Siim Kallas and visited Estonia. When you are there and look at the map, the world looks geopolitically rather different than in the Netherlands. Good that they are in NATO. Through the NATO enlargement the Baltic Sea has actually become a NATO sea. There now runs an iron curtain from North Norway to the south of the Black Sea. Once the dividing line ran straight through Germany and Berlin.
Furthermore: look at the situation in Ukraine. Putin thought he would be lord and master there in three weeks. That turned out badly. Ukraine stayed on its feet, the Russian army got stuck. There is now a hopeless war of attrition in which Russia has to call on soldiers from North Korea. Russians are actually fleeing mobilization; they do not want to go to the front of the Grim Reaper at all.
With an alarmist discourse Rutte reaps, on defense, the same as Frans Timmermans on climate: disbelief. Fear-mongering works briefly, after that it turns around. Citizens feel deceived and put their foot down at the ballot box. Give an honest picture: substantiate the necessity of a higher defense budget factually and present a plan for, for example, a European arms industry along the Airbus model. Alarmism is a form of panic-mongering.
It is highly peculiar. Rutte preaches a ‘war economy’ and Trump wants to negotiate with Putin and Zelensky about a peace settlement in Ukraine. What would an ordinary citizen in Europe prefer?
Derk Jan Eppink is a Distinguished Fellow (Honorary) at the Gold Institute for International Strategy, a Washington D.C.-based foreign policy and defense think tank.
