The upheaval of the mainline Democrats is already underway as proven by Kentucky’s faux blue dog governor
Because people are obsessed with polling, allowing its constantly wrong readings to influence their willingness to gamble thousands in online prediction markets, they often miss obvious tells that better inform the rational mind. Do you remember the Ann Selzer fiasco in Iowa – when she threw out a poll suggesting Harris would beat Trump by three points?
Yea, she only missed by 16 and some change. Everyone knew she was playing a role in tanking markets, and funny enough, there may be another Selzer situation on our hands in Iowa as the polls currently indicate Democrat glory in the Hawkeye State:
“Was Trump +21” — Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini), August 15, 2026
The biggest tell on Iowa wasn’t that poll, but the complementary Emerson poll showing Trump +10.5% and the fact that Harris didn’t even sniff Iowa (or visit), but rather doubled down on New Hampshire. She knew she wasn’t going to win it, and this time around, Trump’s team didn’t bite on the bluff at all.
Those are examples of reading the signs at the micro level. They have to do with the campaign itself and the mental aspect of staying a few inches ahead of the enemy at all times. At the macro level, we are already seeing things develop as I suspected they would on America’s political left. Before I jump into that, this happens on the right all the time.
Look at the members of Congress, especially the Senate. House members have to put on the show constantly since their seats are up for debate with their constituents every two years. They are constantly in reelection mode, and this year, they are facing midterm headwinds prevalent for 92 years that suggest a “hold on to your seats” mentality is appropriate. In the Senate, you’ll see members act like complete fools for years, only to morph into Charles “The Hammer” Martel when they have a primary challenger breathing down their necks. This was especially true at the emergence of the Tea Party in 2009-10, and remains true today with the America First/MAGA brand of the Republican Party still in fashion thanks to the popularity of President Trump. Simply put, if Trumpamania were dead as online critics suggest, John Cornyn, Bill Cassidy, and Thom Tillis would be on the way to easy reelection campaigns instead of retirement, and those in position to win today would be the ones casting stones at what remained of Trump’s movement.
That isn’t the case.
On the left, the Democrats are quietly signaling that their ship is taking on water. From Gretchen Whitmer and the Democrat machine doing all they could to stop Abdul El-Sayed to their counterparts in Wisconsin actually succeeding in stopping Francesca Hong last week, there seems to be a lot of energy being expended for something that the Democrats ensure isn’t going to be a nationwide phenomenon threatening the cohesion of the party and jeopardizing their holds on the two voter groups they can’t afford to lose: white urbanites and inner city blacks.
Of course, we can also look back at Maine’s Oystergruppenführer, Graham Platner. It wasn’t long ago that Graham was supposedly on his way to knocking off a Senator who appears to have nine lives, but now he’s an afterthought who has been written out of the programming of a failing television show. His personal scandals were used as cover for the Democrat machine, craving a phony capable of playing a moderate on camera, social media, and sound bites, to do a specifically un-Democratic thing by discarding Platner’s definitive primary victory as if it never happened.
New York, Seattle, and Denver today. But Dallas, Phoenix, and Pittsburgh next. And the machine knows it. At this rate, and with a bit of good fortune on our sides in reforming election law, we could be looking at a map like this by 2040:
That is the fate of the United States if the DSA takes over the Democrat Party as the Tea Party/MAGA movement took over the Republican Party, and if we get even the slightest relief in overhauling elections, particularly the mail-in balloting process. The Democrat voters rejecting the DSA candidates the most, as evidenced by the Michigan and Wisconsin races featuring El-Sayed and Hong, respectively, were urban blacks and suburban moderates (whites). This would cost the Democrats Illinois, Minnesota, Virginia, and New Jersey, and other coalitions (like Latinos and affluent whites) would be responsible for flipping states like New Mexico, Maine, or Rhode Island. Any talk of blue Georgia is over as long as the DSA message is the wave of the future. The electoral tallies associated with that map will get even worse for Democrats as census changes take effect.
Bear with me here, but look at the insanity going on inside state legislatures associated with DSA-affiliated Democrats:
From that article:
Democrats in blue states across the country have swamped their legislatures with an avalanche of nearly 250 pro-migrant bills to thwart President Donald Trump’s immigration and deportation policies.
A review by the left-wing State Futures organization discovered 242 pieces of legislation in 32 states, of which about a fifth have already passed, OregonLive reported.
The bills have been enthusiastically supported by state Democrats, but many have been opposed by legal action by the federal government. In some blue states, though, some of the measures have even been vetoed by Democrat governors who fear the measures go too far.
Various measures in the bills seek to ban federal law enforcement officers from wearing masks, which is a move the president has blasted as unconstitutional. They also aim to deny federal agents from being able to use undercover license plates, which the administration has sued to stop. Additionally, the bills aim to prevent Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers from using government property and prevent federal officials from opening new detention facilities.
Take note of the bold font (bolded by yours truly). Vetoed by Democrat governors who fear the measures go…too…far. None of these governors are moderates, as you know. They don’t worry about the impact of prioritizing illegal aliens, gang members, cartel henchmen, or other assorted welfare cases over American citizens as far as quality-of-life goes. They are worried about the electoral consequences for their party, and by extension, themselves.
A crippled Democrat machine in Michigan won’t float a future Senator Whitmer, just like its mangled counterpart in Pennsylvania may not float a presidential candidate Shapiro, even with states’ track records of boosting their native sons on the quest to 270 electoral votes. So, the result is that the most extreme legislation meets the veto pen when in fact Democrat governors are seated to do exactly that.
Veto pens are quiet, and the press is far less dramatic in announcing bills going down in flames, especially if it fits their overall goal of suppressing the American right in the long run. What is not quiet, however, are throngs of voters at a presumptive AOC rally in Michigan in early 2028, crying out for the elites to have their heads on pikes and all white men forced to undergo privilege counseling at their own expense. Some of these supposedly moderate Democrats have managed to hang on because they are from states that give them leeway to do so.
Such as Andy Beshear, a family legacy and current Democrat governor of Kentucky.
Beshear’s father was a popular blue dog governor from 2007-15 and after a rare GOP gubernatorial victory in the state, Andy dispatched Republican Matt Bevin in 2019 and was reelected in 2023. I am confident Andy will be the last Democrat governor of Kentucky perhaps ever:
Andy is quite clearly making a play for greener pastures, such as 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, but it is clear to me that he doesn’t know his ass from a hole in the ground. His entire persona is and must be built around that blue dog vibe, but look how it worked out for Steve Bullock in the 2020 campaign. Yea, exactly. Beshear seems to know that there is no room for his persona in the party, yet that is his only possible gimmick to draw any attention whatsoever, as long as he scratches just enough backs on the DSA side to make his campaign palatable on electability only.
Somewhere in that brain of his, he decided to come out with this gem:
GOV. BESHEAR: Well, I’ll give you two because people want you to fix the darn economy, and they want you to fix the darn government. On the economy, it is time for an aspirational investment in housing that can bring down the cost of- of especially first-time home ownership. People can actually see that progress all over the country. We ought to tie the federal dollars to speed. You’ve got to break ground and you’ve got to do it quickly. Get through the overregulation and the NIMBY-ism. But I tell you what, people also think this government is broken. So, fix the darn government. Constitutional amendment. It is time. It should outlaw partisan redistricting and enshrine part of the Voting Rights Act right there in the constitution. It should create term limits for Congress and the Supreme Court. No more gaming those appointments. It should also overturn Citizens United, and I think call for direct elections of the president and the vice president. That could actually make things work. A big idea that would, yes, change government, but in a way enshrined in the constitution where people would know it’s going to get better.
ED O’KEEFE: I didn’t realize you support abolishing the Electoral College. If you’re saying direct election of the president and vice president.
That is a rally cry for unity with the DSA. Someone out there needs to email the darn governor here a copy of some of the founding documents and explain in detail the rationale for an Electoral College, which was specifically conceived of to prevent states like Virginia, the big dog on the block at the time, from overwhelming the interests of the smaller states. Kentucky is a mid-sized state worth eight electoral votes. It is specifically in Beshear’s best interests to fight for Kentucky and in doing so, stand by the Electoral College. You’d expect for states with booming populations like California to be in support of a popular vote, but a presidential contest under a popular vote system would see even less engagement than we have today. Campaigns would hang out solely in New York, Chicago, four cities in Texas, and Southern California. Republicans would probably make a few pit stops in South Florida, and Democrats might do some fund raising in Seattle or the Twin Cities. And that would be your election.
No serious statesman defending the interests of his beloved state would come out with such a stupid argument that uniquely disadvantages that state, such as abolishing the Electoral College or siding with people who think it is unfair for all states to have the same number of Senators (the fairness is for the U.S. House). Still, the fact remains that if the most blue dog Democrat on the national stage is messaging such hare-brained ideas on national television, then I must be onto something.
That something is that the DSA’s takeover of the Democrat machine is inevitable, and will bring about sweeping electoral consequences few are banking on – except for those of you who know how to interpret signs and behaviors that are coming into public view.
Seth Keshel, MBA is a Senior Fellow at the Gold Institute for International Strategy and a retired Army Captain. He publishes Captain K’s Corner on Substack.
