(This article was written by Derk Jan Eppink and appeared in Wynia’s Week. Trump zet zijn voet in de Iraanse klem. En Europa capituleert voor de ayatollah’s)

America and Iran are caught in a “peace process” that resembles a game of cat and mouse, in which the mouse leads the house cat astray. The negotiations between the two countries reached, as a first step, a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that better deserves the name “Memorandum of Misunderstanding” (MoM). The roles appear reversed. The Islamic Republic of Iran continues to behave as the owner of the “Strait of Hormuz” — a flagrant violation of international law — and in doing so makes a fool of mighty America while the world economy trembles.

Symbolism is often mere appearance. Last week Trump signed the preliminary agreement with Iran at the Palace of Versailles, during a lunch with French President Macron. The MoU consists of 14 points, which calls to mind the Fourteen Points plan of 1918 by American President Woodrow Wilson, as the basis for a peace settlement in Europe after the First World War. Much of it was incorporated into the “Treaty of Versailles” of 1919, the new start for old Europe — a treaty that would lead to a Second World War. Beware of Versailles! Not everything that glitters in mirrors is real.

Party of God

Trump’s fourteen-point plan stumbles already at point 1: “a permanent end on all fronts, including Lebanon.” The last two words appeared under pressure from Iran, which has a crucial ally in Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. This “party of God” is trigger-happy and constantly bombards northern Israel. A cascade followed. Hezbollah, not a party to the US-Iran agreement, shells Israel, which is likewise not a party to the agreement. Israel, out of reflex, shoots back. Iran, which slipped “Lebanon” into the agreement, becomes angry at America, which is supposed to keep Israel under control.

Tehran then threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz, blackmailing the entire world. Trump gets the blame because the fourteen-point plan guarantees “the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.” Trump then quarrels with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. And that is exactly what Iran intends. About Iran’s terrorist henchmen — Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis — the MoU says nothing.

Iran plays chess while Trump sits at a checkers board

The rest of the MoU is full of points where, once again, the Americans tear their trousers. For instance, article 2 says that the two treaty parties “must refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.” Iran is the world champion of human-rights violations and the carrying out of death sentences. That is simply “passed over in silence.” The country is a religious-ideological dictatorship and, in the many thousands of years of its existence, has never known a democracy.

America, at 250 years old (congratulations!), is a newcomer. Anyone who ploughs through the history of Iran/Persia sees many invasions, from Greeks to Romans, from Turks to Arabs, and from Mongols to Afghans. Iran survived all its conquerors and now plays a game with America from its own repertoire.

The negotiations have just begun in Switzerland in order to be able to sign a full-fledged treaty within 60 days of the signing of the MoU. In Trump’s words, a “final deal.” There are hot-button issues, such as the permanent keeping-open of the Strait of Hormuz — Iran’s strategic trump card.

There are also goodies for the Iranian regime, such as: a fund of 300 billion dollars for reconstruction and economic development, an end to all sanctions, the immediate export of Iranian oil (largely to China), and the release of internationally frozen Iranian assets, roughly 100 to 120 billion dollars — in the US only 2 billion dollars. Those funds, however, flow mainly to the corrupt Iranian elite.

Nuclear weapons

But there is also a price. Iran “reaffirms that it will not acquire or itself produce nuclear weapons.” Already-enriched uranium must be made less enriched through the technology of downblending, so that it cannot be used for nuclear weapons. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna is to monitor this. For the US this is essential, but it is at the same time the theme on which the Islamic Republic has elevated lying to the highest art. Last June the American air force carried out a major attack with “bunker busters” to blow up storage sites of more highly enriched uranium.

Iran must be content with less enriched uranium, but a nuclear weapon is the life insurance of the political regime. Without nuclear weapons the ayatollahs and the generals of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would feel naked, unworthy of the Islamic Republic. The bag of tricks remains within reach.

Despite all the American attacks, Iran feels like the winner, because the regime has survived the first round. It is now trying, through negotiations, to wring out more by sowing division.

The Trump-Netanyahu quarrel is a boost for Iran. Squabbling in America is too, because in November come the Midterms. It rarely happens that a sitting president comes through the Midterms well in a second term. The theme: the price of gasoline, essential for a country with great distances. The price of gasoline is now 3.94 dollars per gallon, which comes to 0.87 euro cents per liter; in the Netherlands the tax alone on a liter of gasoline is already higher than this amount. In the US the rule is: expensive gasoline = angry voter. Around mid-August it should become clear whether the great “Deal” will happen, or not.

Regime change

At home Trump faces criticism, of course from the Democrats in the opposition, but also from circles of his own Republicans. A respected senator like Lindsey Graham (70) finds the MoU falls short, as does Senator Tom Cotton (49), a former army officer.

In circles of the American military elite there are considerable reservations. They are puzzled and have the feeling that Trump is letting a crocodile lure him into the water. Trump wants a “deal.” It is mainly retired senior military officers who publicly warn in the media, such as four-star general Jack Keane. He recently said on Fox News: “Iran is not to be trusted, they lie and cheat; we all know that.” Keane: “We have to finish the job.” He wants “regime change.” The Democrats sincerely hope that Trump runs aground on Iran. Many Europeans hope the same.

French capitulation

There are no independent sources in Tehran, but the ruling regime feels stronger. That was evident this past weekend in Paris, where the oppositional National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) organized a mass demonstration against the regime in Tehran.

The Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, called his French counterpart Jean-Noël Barrot to complain about the demonstration of around 100,000 Iranian opponents from all over Europe. He added that a bomb attack was not ruled out. Thereupon France revoked the permit for the demonstration and sent all the buses of demonstrators back home. France rarely misses a chance to capitulate.

The rest of Western Europe is little different. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz declared that the confrontation between the US and Iran is not “our war,” though he does demand that the Strait of Hormuz remain open. As if that happens by itself. Great Britain is searching for itself, Spain is outspokenly pro-ayatollah, and with Italian Prime Minister Meloni the cuddling with Trump is over. Yet another unnecessary quarrel by Trump.

The American chief negotiator is the stiff Vice President J.D. Vance; previously it was mainly Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Vance comes from the Midwest, the American heartland, and wrote a book about it: Hillbilly Elegy (Lament). Rubio has Cuban parents and has a better feel for the outside world, but does not lead the dance.

The roadmap is becoming a hurdle race, under time pressure — not so much for Iran, but indeed for America.

Derk Jan Eppink is a Senior Fellow at the Gold Institute for International Strategy, a Washington D.C.-based foreign policy and defense think tank.