Captain Seth Keshel’s complete regional breakdown of 2026 U.S. House seat ratings, covering all 50 states.
Jump to region: Carolinas | Deep South | Texas | Florida | Industrial Midwest | Illinois + Iowa | Upper Midwest | Ozarks + Plains | Rockies | Southwest | California | Northwest + Far West
Carolinas (NC, SC)
Author’s Note: This overview aims to identify seats that are not competitive in 2026, so resources can be allocated appropriately and with maximum impact.
I have been waiting for South Carolina to figure out what it wants to do about redistricting post-Callais; unfortunately for the rest of us, they’ve decided to allow Jim Clyburn to survive for another term in a district drawn to select a candidate based on the color of his skin. The Republicans may have room to expand in both states as soon as the 2028 cycle, but the maps are sturdy for this cycle and easy to predict. North Carolina recently redrew the boundaries of NC-1 and its bordering districts, and as such, previous margins from 2024 are not included for that state.
NORTH CAROLINA
NC-2: Deborah Ross (D), running for 4th term — SAFE
NC-3: Greg Murphy (R), running for 5th term — SAFE
NC-4: Valerie Foushee (D), running for 3rd term — SAFE
NC-5: Virginia Foxx (R), running for 12th term — SAFE
NC-6: Addison McDowell (R), running for 2nd term — SAFE
NC-7: David Rouzer (R), running for 7th term — SAFE
NC-8: Mark Harris (R), running for 2nd term — SAFE
NC-9: Richard Hudson (R), running for 8th term — SAFE
NC-10: Pat Harrigan (R), running for 2nd term — SAFE
NC-11: Chuck Edwards (R), running for 3rd term — SAFE
NC-12: Alma Adams (D), running for 8th term — SAFE
NC-13: Brad Knott (R), running for 2nd term — SAFE
NC-14: Tim Moore (R), running for 2nd term — SAFE
SOUTH CAROLINA
SC-1: Open seat, Nancy Mace (R) retiring, +16.6% margin in 2024 — SAFE REP
SC-2: Joe Wilson (R), running for 14th term, +19.4% margin in 2024 — SAFE
SC-3: Sheri Biggs (R), running for 2nd term, +46.5% margin in 2024 — SAFE
SC-4: William Timmons (R), running for 5th term, +22.6% margin in 2024 — SAFE
SC-5: Open seat, Ralph Norman (R) retiring, +27.2% margin in 2024 — SAFE REP
SC-6: Jim Clyburn (D), running for 18th term, +22.8% margin in 2024 — SAFE
SC-7: Russell Fry (R), running for 3rd term, +30.0% margin in 2024 — SAFE
CAROLINAS SUMMARY
Democrat: 4 | Republican: 16 | Leaner: 1 (NC-1)
Future analysis will drill down on NC-1 (Democrat leaner). Republicans would be wise to invest their resources in races that can be won elsewhere.
Deep South (AL, LA, MS)
With Georgia’s primary front and center, the Deep South assessment covers Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi. The Supreme Court allowed Alabama to proceed with a previously struck down map that stands to net the GOP an extra seat. Louisiana took a cut at one seat of their own post-Callais, and Mississippi punted, saving Bennie Thompson for perhaps one final term.
ALABAMA
AL-1: Open seat with Jerry Carl nominated, Barry Moore (R) retiring — SAFE REP
AL-2: Shomari Figures (D) redistricted out, Hampton Harris nominated for GOP — REP FLIP
AL-3: Mike Rogers (R), running for 13th term — SAFE
AL-4: Robert Aderholt (R), running for 16th term — SAFE
AL-5: Dale Strong (R), running for 3rd term — SAFE
AL-6: Gary Palmer (R), running for 7th term — SAFE
AL-7: Terri Sewell (D), running for 9th term — SAFE
LOUISIANA
LA-1: Steve Scalise (R), running for 11th term — SAFE
LA-2: Troy Carter (D), running for 4th term — SAFE
LA-3: Clay Higgins (R), running for 6th term — SAFE
LA-4: Mike Johnson (R), Speaker of the House, running for 6th term — SAFE
LA-5: Open seat, Julia Letlow (R) retiring — SAFE REP
LA-6: Cleo Fields (D) redistricted out, GOP nomination open — REP FLIP
MISSISSIPPI
MS-1: Trent Kelly (R), running for 7th term, +39.6% margin in 2024 — SAFE
MS-2: Bennie Thompson (D), running for 18th term, +24.0% margin in 2024 — SAFE
MS-3: Michael Guest (R), running for 5th term, uncontested in 2024 — SAFE
MS-4: Mike Ezell (R), running for 3rd term, +47.8% margin in 2024 — SAFE
DEEP SOUTH SUMMARY
Democrat: 3 | Republican: 14
None of the 17 seats in the Deep South figure to be competitive. Republicans would be wise to invest their resources in races that can be won outside of this region.Texas
MAGA Americans first became optimistic for the 2026 midterms when Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed new maps into law that essentially guaranteed Republicans would improve upon a 25-13 U.S. House seat advantage over Democrats. The maps held up in court. California, however, is trying to wipe out five GOP seats and is more likely than not to get the edge on Texas.
TEXAS
TX-1: Nathaniel Moran (R), running for 3rd term — SAFE
TX-2: Open seat, Steve Toth (R) winner of GOP primary unseating Dan Crenshaw — SAFE REP
TX-3: Keith Self (R), running for 3rd term — SAFE
TX-4: Pat Fallon (R), running for 4th term — SAFE
TX-5: Lance Gooden (R), running for 5th term — SAFE
TX-6: Jake Ellzey (R), running for 4th term — SAFE
TX-7: Lizzie Fletcher (D), running for 5th term — SAFE
TX-8: Open seat, Jessica Steinmann (R) winner of GOP primary — SAFE REP
TX-9: Open seat, Alex Mealer (R) winner of GOP primary — REP FLIP
TX-10: Open seat, Chris Gober (R) winner of GOP primary — SAFE REP
TX-11: August Pfluger (R), running for 4th term — SAFE
TX-12: Craig Goldman (R), running for 2nd term — SAFE
TX-13: Ronny Jackson (R), running for 4th term — SAFE
TX-14: Randy Weber (R), running for 8th term — SAFE
TX-15: Monica De La Cruz (R), running for 3rd term — SAFE
TX-16: Veronica Escobar (D), running for 5th term — SAFE
TX-17: Pete Sessions (R), running for 4th term — SAFE
TX-18: Christian Menefee (D), running for 1st full term — SAFE
TX-19: Open seat, Tom Sell (R) winner of GOP primary — SAFE REP
TX-20: Joaquin Castro (D), running for 8th term — SAFE
TX-21: Open seat, Mark Teixeira (R) winner of GOP primary — SAFE REP
TX-22: Open seat, Trever Nehls (R) winner of GOP primary — SAFE REP
TX-23: Open seat, Brandon Herrera (R) winner of GOP primary — SAFE REP
TX-24: Beth Van Duyne (R), running for 4th term — SAFE
TX-25: Roger Williams (R), running for 8th term — SAFE
TX-26: Brandon Gill (R), running for 2nd term — SAFE
TX-27: Michael Cloud (R), running for 6th term — SAFE
TX-29: Sylvia Garcia (D), running for 5th term — SAFE
TX-30: Open seat, Frederick Haynes (D) winner of DEM primary — SAFE DEM
TX-31: John Carter (R), running for 13th term — SAFE
TX-32: Open seat, Jace Yarbrough (R) winner of GOP primary — REP FLIP
TX-33: Open seat, Colin Allred (D) winner of DEM primary — SAFE DEM
TX-35: Open seat, Carlos De La Cruz (R) winner of GOP primary — REP FLIP
TX-36: Brian Babin (R), running for 7th term — SAFE
TX-37: Open seat, Greg Casar (D) running in new boundaries of Austin seat — SAFE DEM
TX-38: Open seat, Jon Bonck (R) winner of GOP primary — SAFE REPTEXAS SUMMARY
Democrat: 8 | Republican: 28 | Leaner: 1 (TX-28) | Decisive: 1 (TX-34)
Future analysis will drill down on TX-28 (Democrat leaner) and TX-34 (decisive seat).Florida
Governor Ron DeSantis convened a special session of the Florida legislature to respond to Virginia’s lawless gerrymander. Florida preserved its existing 20 Republican seats with its own new map and opened up the possibility for four more GOP flips with no risk. Florida has reddened at a breakneck pace, the South Florida Latino vote continues to shift to the right, and transplants are turning Florida into its own political phenomenon. Florida also has the luxury of running elections post-Senate Bill 524, which tightened up the cheat loopholes available in the state’s election system.
FLORIDA
FL-1: Jimmy Patronis (R), running for 1st full term — SAFE
FL-2: Open seat, Neal Dunn (R) retiring — SAFE
FL-3: Kat Cammack (R), running for 4th term — SAFE
FL-4: Aaron Bean (R), running for 3rd term — SAFE
FL-5: John Rutherford (R), running for 6th term — SAFE
FL-6: Randy Fine (R), running for 1st full term — SAFE
FL-7: Cory Mills (R), running for 3rd term — SAFE
FL-8: Mike Haridopolos (R), running for 2nd term — SAFE
FL-9: New Republican, Darren Soto (D) forecast to be drawn out by redistricting — REP FLIP
FL-10: Maxwell Frost (D), running for 3rd term — SAFE
FL-11: Open seat, Dan Webster (R) retiring — SAFE
FL-12: Gus Bilirakis (R), running for 11th term — SAFE
FL-13: Anna Paulina Luna (R), running for 3rd term — SAFE
FL-15: Laurel Lee (R), running for 3rd term — SAFE
FL-16: Open seat, Vern Buchanan (R) retiring — SAFE
FL-17: Greg Steube (R), running for 5th term — SAFE
FL-18: Scott Franklin (R), running for 4th term — SAFE
FL-19: Open seat, Byron Donalds (R) retiring to run for Governor — SAFE
FL-20: Open seat, Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) running in newly redrawn district — SAFE DEM
FL-21: Brian Mast (R), running for 6th term — SAFE
FL-23: Open seat, Lois Frankel (D) running in newly redrawn district — SAFE DEM
FL-24: Frederica Wilson (D), running for 9th term — SAFE
FL-26: Mario Diaz-Balart (R), running for 13th term — SAFE
FL-27: Maria Salazar (R), running for 4th term — SAFE
FL-28: Carlos Gimenez (R), running for 4th term — SAFEFLORIDA SUMMARY
Democrat: 4 | Republican: 21 | Leaner: 2 (FL-14, FL-22) | Decisive: 1 (FL-25)
Future analysis will drill down on FL-14 and FL-22 (Democrat leaners) and FL-25 (decisive seat).Industrial Midwest (IN, MI, OH)
Ohio redistricted in late 2025, but didn’t cut nearly as aggressively as they could have. Still, an opportunity to pick up two seats is better than the lame efforts of the Indiana Senate, which left existing maps completely intact. In Michigan, the Republican Party is on defense in a tough year, with some of the worst election laws in the country to contend with on top of the 2026 midterm dynamics.
INDIANA
IN-1: Frank Mrvan (D), running for 4th term, +8.5% margin in 2024 — SAFE
IN-2: Rudy Yakym (R), running for 4th term, +28.1% margin in 2024 — SAFE
IN-3: Marlin Stutzman (R), running for 2nd term, +33.6% margin in 2024 — SAFE
IN-4: Jim Baird (R), running for 5th term, +33.9% margin in 2024 — SAFE
IN-5: Victoria Spartz (R), running for 4th term, +18.6% margin in 2024 — SAFE
IN-6: Jefferson Shreve (R), running for 2nd term, +33.6% margin in 2024 — SAFE
IN-7: Andre Carson (D), running for 11th term, +39.3% margin in 2024 — SAFE
IN-8: Mark Messmer (R), running for 2nd term, +38.6% margin in 2024 — SAFE
IN-9: Erin Houchin (R), running for 3rd term, +31.7% margin in 2024 — SAFEMICHIGAN
MI-1: Jack Bergman (R), running for 6th term, +21.3% margin in 2024 — SAFE
MI-2: John Moolenaar (R), running for 7th term, +33.4% margin in 2024 — SAFE
MI-3: Hillary Scholten (D), running for 3rd term, +9.8% margin in 2024 — SAFE
MI-4: Bill Huizenga (R), running for 9th term, +11.8% margin in 2024 — SAFE
MI-5: Tim Walberg (R), running for 9th term, +32.9% margin in 2024 — SAFE
MI-6: Debbie Dingell (D), running for 7th term, +27.0% margin in 2024 — SAFE
MI-9: Lisa McClain (R), running for 4th term, +37.3% margin in 2024 — SAFE
MI-11: Open seat, Haley Stevens (D) retiring, +18.6% margin in 2024 — SAFE DEM
MI-12: Rashida Tlaib (D), running for 5th term, +44.3% margin in 2024 — SAFE
MI-13: Shri Thanedar (D), running for 3rd term, +44.1% margin in 2024 — SAFEOHIO
OH-2: David Taylor (R), running for 2nd term, +33.4% margin in 2024 — SAFE
OH-3: Joyce Beatty (D), running for 8th term — SAFE
OH-4: Jim Jordan (R), running for 11th term — SAFE
OH-5: Bob Latta (R), running for 11th term — SAFE
OH-6: Michael Rulli (R), running for 3rd term — SAFE
OH-7: Max Miller (R), running for 3rd term — SAFE
OH-8: Warren Davidson (R), running for 7th term — SAFE
OH-10: Michael Turner (R), running for 13th term — SAFE
OH-11: Shontel Brown (D), running for 4th term — SAFE
OH-12: Troy Balderson (R), running for 6th term — SAFE
OH-14: David Joyce (R), running for 8th term — SAFE
OH-15: Mike Carey (R), running for 4th term — SAFEINDUSTRIAL MIDWEST SUMMARY
Democrat: 9 | Republican: 22 | Leaner: 2 (MI-8, OH-1) | Decisive: 4 (MI-7, MI-10, OH-9, OH-13)
Future analysis will drill down on MI-8 and OH-1 (Democrat leaners) and MI-7, MI-10, OH-9, and OH-13 (decisive seats).Illinois + Iowa
These evaluations have been getting redder and redder heading west — that stops with this installment and the extreme gerrymander that is Illinois, where over 12 Democrat districts can be found within 50 miles of one another, all crammed into the northeast corner of the state. In Iowa, Republicans currently hold all four seats but are going to be on defense in two races that look to be photo finishes.
ILLINOIS
IL-1: Jonathan Jackson (D), running for 3rd term, +31.8% margin in 2024 — SAFE
IL-2: Open seat with Donna Miller nominated, Robin Kelly (D) retiring, +35.2% margin in 2024 — SAFE DEM
IL-3: Delia Ramirez (D), running for 3rd term, +34.6% margin in 2024 — SAFE
IL-4: Open seat with Patty Garcia nominated, Jesus Garcia (D) retiring, +40.2% margin in 2024 — SAFE DEM
IL-5: Mike Quigley (D), running for 10th term, +38.0% margin in 2024 — SAFE
IL-6: Sean Casten (D), running for 5th term, +8.4% margin in 2024 — SAFE
IL-7: Open seat with La Shawn Ford nominated, Danny Davis (D) retiring, +66.6% margin in 2024 — SAFE DEM
IL-8: Open seat with Melissa Bean nominated, Raja Krishnamoorthi (D) retiring, +14.2% margin in 2024 — SAFE DEM
IL-9: Open seat with Daniel Bliss nominated, Jan Schakowsky (D) retiring, +36.8% margin in 2024 — SAFE DEM
IL-10: Brad Schneider (D), running for 6th term, +20.0% margin in 2024 — SAFE
IL-11: Bill Foster (D), running for 8th term, +11.2% margin in 2024 — SAFE
IL-12: Mike Bost (R), running for 7th term, +49.4% margin in 2024 — SAFE
IL-13: Nikki Budzinski (D), running for 3rd term, +16.2% margin in 2024 — SAFE
IL-14: Lauren Underwood (D), running for 5th term, +10.2% margin in 2024 — SAFE
IL-15: Mary Miller (R), running for 4th term, uncontested in 2024 — SAFE
IL-16: Darin LaHood (R), running for 7th term, uncontested in 2024 — SAFE
IL-17: Eric Sorensen (D), running for 3rd term, +8.8% in 2024 — SAFE (would be a leaner in a favorable GOP year, but not in 2026)IOWA
IA-2: Open seat, Ashley Hinson (R) retiring to run for U.S. Senate, +15.5% margin in 2024 — SAFE REP
IA-4: Open seat, Randy Feenstra (R) retiring to run for governor, +34.4% margin in 2024 — SAFE REPILLINOIS + IOWA SUMMARY
Democrat: 14 | Republican: 5 | Decisive: 2 (IA-1, IA-3)
Future analysis will drill down on IA-1 and IA-3 (decisive seats).Upper Midwest (MN, WI)
Minnesota, despite widely documented financial fraud and election laws that allow for popular vote rigging, has one of the fairest U.S. House maps in the country that perfectly captures the urban-rural divide in the state. Wisconsin, thanks to its normally Republican lean in the legislature and the concentration of leftists in two urban areas, strongly favors the GOP.
MINNESOTA
MN-1: Brad Finstad (R), running for 4th term, +17.2% margin in 2024 — SAFE
MN-2: Open seat, Angie Craig (D) retiring, +13.5% margin in 2024 — SAFE DEM
MN-3: Kelly Morrison (D), running for 2nd term, +17.0% margin in 2024 — SAFE
MN-4: Betty McCollum (D), running for 14th term, +34.8% margin in 2024 — SAFE
MN-5: Ilhan Omar (D), running for 5th term, +50.4% margin in 2024 — SAFE
MN-6: Tom Emmer (R), running for 7th term, +25.0% margin in 2024 — SAFE
MN-7: Michelle Fischbach (R), running for 4th term, +41.0% margin in 2024 — SAFE
MN-8: Pete Stauber (R), running for 5th term, +16.0% margin in 2024 — SAFEWISCONSIN
WI-1: Bryan Steil (R), running for 5th term, +10.2% margin in 2024 — SAFE
WI-2: Mark Pocan (D), running for 8th term, +40.2% margin in 2024 — SAFE
WI-4: Gwen Moore (D), running for 12th term, +52.4% margin in 2024 — SAFE
WI-5: Scott Fitzgerald (R), running for 4th term, +29.0% margin in 2024 — SAFE
WI-6: Glenn Grothman (R), running for 7th term, +22.6% margin in 2024 — SAFE
WI-7: Open seat, Tom Tiffany (R) retiring to run for Governor, +27.2% margin in 2024 — SAFE REP
WI-8: Tony Wied (R), running for 3rd term, +14.6% margin in 2024 — SAFEUPPER MIDWEST SUMMARY
Democrat: 6 | Republican: 9 | Decisive: 1 (WI-3)
Future analysis will drill down on WI-3 (decisive seat).Ozarks + Plains (AR, KS, MO, NE, ND, OK, SD)
The Ozarks and Great Plains serve as a smaller version of the South for Republicans, with very little opportunity to do anything other than cash in. Thanks to the retirement of Don Bacon, NE-2 looms as the most critical seat in this region. President Trump won it in 2016, but has not carried that lone electoral vote in his last two races. Kansas and Nebraska both have sufficient red space to ensure Democrats have no winnable seats to compete for.
ARKANSAS
AR-1: Rick Crawford (R), running for 9th term, +48.9% margin in 2024 — SAFE
AR-2: French Hill (R), running for 7th term, +17.8% margin in 2024 — SAFE
AR-3: Steve Womack (R), running for 9th term, +32.0% margin in 2024 — SAFE
AR-4: Bruce Westerman (R), running for 7th term, +45.8% margin in 2024 — SAFEKANSAS
KS-1: Tracey Mann (R), running for 4th term, +38.2% margin in 2024 — SAFE
KS-2: Derek Schmidt (R), running for 2nd term, +18.9% margin in 2024 — SAFE
KS-3: Sharice Davids (D), running for 5th term, +10.8% margin in 2024 — SAFE
KS-4: Ron Estes (R), running for 6th term, +30.0% margin in 2024 — SAFEMISSOURI
MO-1: Wesley Bell (D), running for 2nd term — SAFE
MO-2: Ann Wagner (R), running for 8th term — SAFE
MO-3: Bob Onder (R), running for 2nd term — SAFE
MO-4: Mark Alford (R), running for 3rd term — SAFE
MO-5: GOP nominee pending August primary, Emanuel Cleaver (D) being drawn out by redistricting — REP FLIP
MO-6: Open seat, Sam Graves (R) retiring — SAFE REP
MO-7: Eric Burlison (R), running for 3rd term — SAFE
MO-8: Jason Smith (R), running for 8th term — SAFENEBRASKA
NE-1: Mike Flood (R), running for 4th term, +20.2% margin in 2024 — SAFE
NE-3: Adrian Smith (R), running for 11th term, +60.8% margin in 2024 — SAFENORTH DAKOTA
ND-AL: Julie Fedorchak (R), running for 2nd term, +39.0% margin in 2024 — SAFE
OKLAHOMA
OK-1: Open seat, Kevin Hern (R) retiring, +25.9% margin in 2024 — SAFE REP
OK-2: Josh Brecheen (R), running for 3rd term, +52.8% margin in 2024 — SAFE
OK-3: Frank Lucas (R), running for 18th term, uncontested in 2024 — SAFE
OK-4: Tom Cole (R), running for 13th term, +36.9% margin in 2024 — SAFE
OK-5: Stephanie Bice (R), running for 4th term, +21.4% margin in 2024 — SAFESOUTH DAKOTA
SD-AL: Marty Jackley nominated, Dusty Johnson (R) retiring, +44.0% margin in 2024 — SAFE REP
OZARKS + PLAINS SUMMARY
Democrat: 2 | Republican: 23 | Decisive: 1 (NE-2)
Future analysis will drill down on NE-2 (decisive seat).Rockies (CO, ID, MT, WY)
The Rockies group Colorado, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming into a minor region featuring just 13 seats (only 3% of the U.S. House), with over 60% featured in Colorado. Colorado, despite its Universal Mail-In Voting system and lopsided urban population in the Denver area, has one of the fairest House maps around, currently featuring a 4-4 split between the parties. That 4-4 split is subject to change this year with the GOP defending a leaner (CO-3) and one of the truest tossups in the 2026 race, CO-8.
COLORADO
CO-1: Diana DeGette (D), running for 16th term, +53.9% margin in 2024 — SAFE
CO-2: Joe Neguse (D), running for 5th term, +39.5% margin in 2024 — SAFE
CO-4: Lauren Boebert (R), running for 4th term, +11.6% margin in 2024 — SAFE
CO-5: Jeff Crank (R), running for 2nd term, +13.8% margin in 2024 — SAFE
CO-6: Jason Crow (D), running for 5th term, +20.5% margin in 2024 — SAFE
CO-7: Brittany Pettersen (D), running for 3rd term, +14.2% margin in 2024 — SAFEIDAHO
ID-1: Ross Fulcher (R), running for 5th term, +45.6% margin in 2024 — SAFE
ID-2: Michael Simpson (R), running for 15th term, +30.4% margin in 2024 — SAFEMONTANA
MT-2: Troy Downing (R), running for 2nd term, +32.0% margin in 2024 — SAFE
WYOMING
WY-AL: Open seat, Harriet Hageman (R) retiring to run for U.S. Senate, +47.6% margin in 2024 — SAFE REP
ROCKIES SUMMARY
Democrat: 4 | Republican: 6 | Leaner: 2 (CO-3, MT-1) | Decisive: 1 (CO-8)
Future analysis will drill down on CO-3 and MT-1 (leaners) and CO-8 (decisive seat).Southwest (AZ, NV, NM, UT)
As we barrel toward the Pacific Ocean, one last overland stopping point remains — the Southwest. All four states run terrible, mail-in heavy elections, making tossup races that much more difficult to secure for Republican candidates as vote counts stretch on. Arizona has two vital seats that will likely be among the tipping point states for the overall majority, and it’s Republicans on defense in both. Nevada continues to show promise as a future GOP outpost, but the Democrats have gerrymandered Las Vegas into three separate districts. Utah lost one of its guaranteed GOP seats when a state Supreme Court judge sided with the Democrat redistricting argument.
ARIZONA
AZ-2: Eli Crane (R), running for 3rd term, +9.0% margin in 2024 — SAFE
AZ-3: Yassamin Ansari (D), running for 2nd term, +44.3% margin in 2024 — SAFE
AZ-4: Greg Stanton (D), running for 5th term, +7.2% margin in 2024 — SAFE
AZ-5: Open seat, Andy Biggs (R) retiring to run for Governor, +20.8% margin in 2024 — SAFE REP
AZ-7: Adelita Grijalva (D), running for 1st full term, +26.8% margin in 2024 — SAFE
AZ-8: Abraham Hamadeh (R), running for 2nd term, +13.0% margin in 2024 — SAFE
AZ-9: Paul Gosar (R), running for 9th term, +30.6% margin in 2024 — SAFENEVADA
NV-1: Dina Titus (D), running for 8th term, +7.5% margin in 2024 — SAFE
NV-2: Open seat with David Flippo nominated, Mark Amodei (R) retiring, +18.9% margin in 2024 — SAFE REP
NV-4: Steven Horsford (D), running for 5th term, +8.1% margin in 2024 — SAFENEW MEXICO
NM-1: Melanie Stansbury (D), running for 4th term, +12.8% margin in 2024 — SAFE
NM-3: Teresa Leger Fernandez (D), running for 4th term, +11.6% margin in 2024 — SAFEUTAH
UT-1: Blake Moore (R) redistricted out, Democrat nomination open — DEM FLIP
UT-2: Celeste Maloy (R), running for 3rd term — SAFE
UT-3: Mike Kennedy (R), running for 2nd term — SAFE
UT-4: Open seat, Burgess Owens (R) retiring — SAFE REPSOUTHWEST SUMMARY
Democrat: 8 | Republican: 8 | Leaner: 2 (NV-3, NM-2) | Decisive: 2 (AZ-1, AZ-6)
Future analysis will drill down on NV-3 and NM-2 (leaners) and AZ-1 and AZ-6 (decisive seats).California
Governor Gavin Newsom successfully spearheaded a legislative takeover of the “independent commission” that had drawn up an already unbalanced 43-9 U.S. House map favoring Democrats. The special election that green-lighted the new maps was intended to give Democrats an edge that is perhaps as high as 48-4. Should they fall at all short of the 48-4 goal, they are gravely at risk of failing to obtain the bare minimum majority of 218 seats. California has been so blue for so long that it may have reached its apogee and, despite a 2026 midterm environment likely to favor Democrats, could produce a fluke upset or two. Analysis for California’s seat-by-seat breakdown was presented in chart format at the original publication; the summary ratings are below.
Note: In CA-6, Kevin Kiley is technically running as an Independent. He is a de facto Republican candidate who is currently a sitting member of Congress, forced to jump races when lines were redrawn.
CALIFORNIA SUMMARY
Democrat: 44 | Republican: 4 | Leaner: 2 (CA-13, CA-45) | Decisive: 2 (CA-22, CA-48)
Future analysis will drill down on CA-13 and CA-45 (leaners) and CA-22 and CA-48 (decisive seats).Northwest + Far West (AK, HI, OR, WA)
Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington are three of eight states nationally that use Universal Mail-In Voting, fueled by Automatic Voter Registration and fully legalized ballot harvesting. Alaska runs Ranked Choice Voting in federal elections. Oregon has three tightly-decided Democrat seats according to 2024 margins — in a Republican-favorable year there would be aggressive opportunity, but 2026 midterm drift does not favor the GOP. This is about holding onto the three easy seats and going after three remaining seats in some of the toughest, most excruciating electoral environments in the country.
HAWAII
HI-1: Ed Case (D), running for 5th term, +43.6% margin in 2024 — SAFE
HI-2: Jill Tokuda (D), running for 3rd term, +36.2% margin in 2024 — SAFEOREGON
OR-1: Suzanne Bonamici (D), running for 9th term, +40.7% margin in 2024 — SAFE
OR-2: Cliff Bentz (R), running for 4th term, +31.2% margin in 2024 — SAFE
OR-3: Maxine Dexter (D), running for 2nd term, +42.6% margin in 2024 — SAFE
OR-4: Val Hoyle (D), running for 3rd term, +7.8% margin in 2024 — SAFE (a leaner in a Republican-favorable year, but not 2026)
OR-6: Andrea Salinas (D), running for 3rd term, +6.8% margin in 2024 — SAFE (a leaner in a Republican-favorable year, but not 2026)WASHINGTON
WA-1: Suzan DelBene (D), running for 9th term, +26.3% margin in 2024 — SAFE
WA-2: Rick Larsen (D), running for 14th term, +27.9% margin in 2024 — SAFE
WA-4: Open seat with Jerrod Sessler running, Dan Newhouse (R) retiring — SAFE REP
WA-5: Michael Baumgartner (R), running for 2nd term, +20.3% margin in 2024 — SAFE
WA-6: Emily Randall (D), running for 2nd term, +13.6% margin in 2024 — SAFE
WA-7: Pramila Jayapal (D), running for 6th term, +68.1% margin in 2024 — SAFE
WA-8: Kim Schrier (D), running for 5th term, +8.2% margin in 2024 — SAFE
WA-9: Adam Smith (D), running for 16th term, +33.0% margin in 2024 — SAFE
WA-10: Marilyn Strickland (D), running for 4th term, +17.3% margin in 2024 — SAFENORTHWEST + FAR WEST SUMMARY
Democrat: 13 | Republican: 3 | Leaner: 1 (OR-5) | Decisive: 2 (AK-AL, WA-3)
Future analysis will drill down on OR-5 (Democrat leaner) and AK-AL and WA-3 (decisive seats).Seth Keshel, MBA is a Fellow at the Gold Institute for International Strategy and a retired Army Captain. He publishes Captain K’s Corner on Substack.
