This past week we’ve begun to see indicators that suggest an increasing number of elements within the regime are fearful that defeat is inevitable. We’re not yet talking huge numbers, but the trend is building in the right direction. This follows previous analysis that the regime had already psychologically isolated itself from the Iranian citizens. Both of these developments, when they arise at compelling levels and combine, are two conditions favorable to successful revolution. A third belongs to the citizens (as irregular operators), who must reach the point where they’re convinced there’s no going back to the way things were before the uprising…that life can only improve after the regime is toppled. This reflects the reality that the psychological component in irregular warfare contributes at least 50% toward ultimate victory.
So, consider the following:
In the last few days alone we’ve seen several reports of Iranian diplomats requesting asylum in the west. In Denmark, Australia, Switzerland and Austria…probably others, too. (BTW we’ve put a $10M bounty on the heads of several other listed senior leaders in the Regime).
Also, we continue to see increasing reports of IRGC members and basij, and police failing to report for duty.
Other reports suggest desertions are rising amongst Iran’s various security forces.
And we’ve disrupted the logistics for the regime’s security forces, and that has produced acute shortages for them…And the shortages, in turn, have led to tension between the IRGC and the Artesh (the conventional Army), because now they’re competing against each other for resupply.
And this supply problem’s only going to get much worse….because a few days ago we destroyed the main data center for Iran’s largest bank, Bank Sepah, which, until now, paid the salaries for all government workers, police, IRGC and basij. I can tell you from first-hand experience that when indigenous forces can’t get money home to their families, bad things happen.
On the other hand are the citizens. So, a few days ago we hit a cyber-company in Tehran, named Sahab Pardaz. That’s the company that the regime used to shut down the internet. So, clearly the intent of our strike was to enable turning the internet back on for Iranian citizens. That’s important, because until the regime blacked out the internet over Iran, the protestors had been relying on social media and other online capabilities to communicate and coordinate. If the internet comes back on, the citizens will regain their ability to organize…and when conditions in the streets ripen…we’ll likely see an increase in organized opposition activity. BTW renewed/re-energized opposition activity is kinda typical in irregular warfare. It’s common that resistance activity goes…let’s say…dormant for a period, and then pops up again, re-energized and with renewed intensity. My guess is we’ll see this when conditions become optimal. Keep watching for it.
Another thing to watch is the shifting priority to our targeting. Why? Because folks on the ground in Iran report that they’re starting to see our targeting shift to local security forces. Until recently we’ve largely been targeting fixed assets of the national-level security forces, air defenses, radars, missile stockpiles, launchers, HQs, bases, armories, airfields, aircraft, storage facilities, training facilities, motorpools, ammo storage bunkers, etc. However, as those have been largely addressed, folks on the ground are now reporting that our targeting is transitioning to other, more local elements of the regime….They’re seeing us hit neighborhood police patrols, snap traffic control points, snap personnel checkpoints…even private automobiles where security forces are sleeping, because they have no patrol base to return to..…these are local levers of repression the regime has relied upon to control the population. Destruction of enough of these local security forces is a necessary condition to enable to citizens to return to the streets. Oh, and much of this targeting is the result of Iranian citizens themselves identifying for us the hide sites and geographic locations of police, baij and IRGC operating in their villages and towns.
We discussed all of this AND the “closing” of the Straits of Hormuz on our show this week. My guest is Arash Saleh, member of the KDP-I (Kurdistan Democratic Party – Iran), the oldest Kurdish resistance group inside Iran. It traces its history back to 1945 in the days leading up to Qazi Mohamed bravely stepping onto the park at Chwar Chira in Mahabad and declaring history’s first, so far only, and sadly short-lived independent, sovereign, Kurdish state…the Kurdish Republic of Mahabad. Threatened by Tehran, the Republic ended one year later. Click on the link to hear our discussion: https://frontlinesoffreedom.com/frontlines-03-07-2026
