The death of Lindsey Graham brings all-new challenges for the Trump coalition
Unless you’ve been living under a rock somewhere in the desert (which may be preferable some days depending on the news cycle), you are certainly aware that South Carolina’s senior U.S. Senator, Lindsey Graham, died Saturday night after returning to Washington, D.C., from a trip to Ukraine. This led to the typical range of responses online when someone prominent dies, ranging from reflective, to poetic, to downright evil.
Before I get further into what it is I’d like to discuss today, the timeline of American political life has always fascinated me. Just as I find it fascinating that President John Tyler (our tenth president!) had grandchildren who lived well into the 21st century, I find it fascinating that Graham’s seat, which he held since 2003, had only been held by one other man since 1956. That man was the notorious Strom Thurmond, who switched his party affiliation to Republican from Democrat in 1964, the year of the Goldwater revolution (and a terrible national landslide for Lyndon Johnson).
Suffice it to say that Graham had been a Washington, D.C., fixture for a long time. Even longer when we consider his time in the U.S. House. Whether you liked Graham or not, this is a big deal, just as it will be a big deal when Mitch McConnell vacates his seat in the near future. The MAGA coalition is made up of the most ideologically diverse Republican group ever assembled. It includes the following:
- Old Guard Republicans (“Reaganites”)
- Neoconservatives (dwindling)
- Evangelicals/Social Conservatives
- Trade populists
- Reformed libertarians
- Other loosely aligned groups committed to outsiders like Trump only
This naturally means these factions are in constant competition (and conflict) with one another, and younger members of the alliance who don’t bolt for the doors struggle to reconcile their views with that of the old world – which Graham belonged to. Graham, as we all know, was very hawkish and came into conflict with President Trump over his views of foreign policy. He was also soft on illegal immigration and was an early critic of Trump’s heavy-handed proposals; yet he remained someone the President valued until his last breath.
I’m here to tell it like it is. It doesn’t mean you have to like it, and it most certainly doesn’t mean I even agree with the President, or anyone else’s, view of the entire matter – but let me help you understand why Trump looked past his differences with Graham and why there are now many unresolved issues related to his unexpected passing:
I. Obstacle or Not?
Every time there is a Supreme Court pick awaiting confirmation, or there is a life-or-death issue like the SAVE America Act up for a vote, every patriot in the world starts counting on their fingers:
- Murkowski
- Collins
- McConnell
- Curtis
- Tillis
- Plenty of Senate alumni such as Flake, Romney, Alexander, Cornyn and any other squishes looking to appease everyone
All of a sudden, that 53-seat majority doesn’t sound so great. We need 75 senators to get around the drama, back-stabbing, and uniparty scamming going on in Washington. One of my favorite subscribers brought up his grievances with Graham yesterday related to January 6, and his points are valid. Graham was very harsh over January 6 and critical of Trump, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he regrets going as far as he did.
Yet…when is the last time you remember counting Graham in that group you just knew would be parroting sexual assault claims against a judicial nominee or ignoring the fact that a bill has 75/25 support because it was intended to fix a nationally known crisis? That’s right.
Trump values loyalty.
From The Hill:
“This is a big blow to the SAVE America Act, let me tell you,” Trump told Welker.
Trump said he spoke with Graham earlier Saturday night, saying the late senator had just landed from Ukraine and told the president, “We’re all set for the SAVE America Act.”
“He sounded a little tired but perfect, but a little bit tired, and had a right to be,” Trump continued. “He was a worker; he was really a worker. But he sounded great, actually, but he actually said he was tired. But he wanted to pass the SAVE America Act, and I said, ‘We’re going to get it done, Lindsey, we’re going to get it done, I’ll see you, like soon. We might even meet today.’”
Graham, although overly hawkish on foreign policy (which most of the young MAGA coalition opposed him over), was rock-solid on judicial nominees – slamming home Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and of course, Amy Coney Barrett just ahead of the 2020 election with all of its headwinds and media insanity. He also was instrumental to the Trump agenda in his role in the next point:
II. Senate Budget Committee Chairman
Put the first point together with this one. Why do you think Graham, the chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, was knocking on Trump’s door right at the very end over the SAVE America Act? That’s because the chatter from the Republican Congress has been about pushing that legislation across as part of a reconciliation bill, tying it to government cheese and big dollars.
“Hey, Lisa – you want that bridge in the Aleutians? It’s going to be in this next bill.”
“Thom, the people of North Carolina are counting on you!”
Politics is an ugly thing but it is a real thing. I’m married to a Freedom Caucus member who is all too willing to die on the hill of ideology but inevitably realizes, when necessary and appropriate, that not all hills must be died upon and that the long-term battles are the most important. Graham’s role in advancing Trump’s fiscal priorities, such as tax policy, through the Senate were and are instrumental to growing the MAGA economy:
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), who died late Saturday, served as one of the Senate GOP’s most trusted channels into Trump’s orbit, translating the president’s demands to skeptical senators while explaining the realities of the Senate back to the White House.
“He could go in and get something approved,” Trump said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” reflecting on Graham’s political skills. “He would just get people on his side. … I wouldn’t often ask, but if I had a problem with a Democrat he could work it out.”
III. If It Ain’t Broke…
Graham, at odds with many in the MAGA movement and a Senator with soft base support, nevertheless was one more incumbent with no concerns over a possible General Election upset. The left thought they had him in 2020, and here’s how that turned out:
For what it’s worth, South Carolina (as opposed to Georgia and North Carolina) has more of a Florida effect going on. Whereas Horry County (Myrtle Beach) was worth a margin of +33,242 for Romney in 2012, it was worth +79,394 for Trump in 2016; transplants to South Carolina are overwhelmingly Republican. This will have the same impact as it does in Florida, where I can view party registration, in that there is no blue wave the new red electorate cannot absorb.
Graham’s immediate replacement will be chosen in a special GOP primary set for August. That individual will take on left-wing whack Annie Andrews in November as an incumbent. Nikki Haley (thank God) is reportedly out, but Trey Gowdy, Nancy Mace, Mark Lynch, and Ralph Norman are kicking the tires on a run.
“Since Lindsey Graham’s last wish was the Save America Act, he should be replaced by a no nonsense freedom lover like Ralph Norman who will make sure that gets done.” — Tyler Bowyer (@tylerbowyer), July 12, 2026
All of those Republican candidates would win a General Election – even Mace, who makes everything about herself and apparently didn’t take the hint after a fifth-place finish for governor last month in the GOP primary.
Conclusion
Politics is a complicated world. Sometimes when we wonder why our favorite team’s general manager keeps that light-hitting catcher on the team, jeopardizing a strong offense, we find ourselves enlightened when we find out the future Hall of Famer on our pitching staff prefers to pitch to him, and not the guy who can hit (this was the case when I was a kid and Greg Maddux only wanted to pitch to Charlie O’Brien, rather than Javy Lopez, who could hit).
Graham’s value to Trump was not ideological, nor was it because he shared all of Trump’s views on immigration and foreign policy. In fact, they were opposites in many ways; yet Graham received Trump’s blessing because he was a necessary piece for advancing less glamorous policies through the Senate. Politics is the art of what is possible, and Graham’s death now provides ample opportunity to get the wrong person in office.
Seth Keshel, MBA is a Fellow at the Gold Institute for International Strategy and a retired Army Captain. He publishes Captain K’s Corner on Substack.
