USA and Israel, are dictating the time, place and manner of combat. The regime can only react, and as it has no means to replenish its rapidly depleting combat assets and no ally is willing (China and Russia) or able (Russia) to replenish those stocks, we will retain the initiative until the culmination of combat. Here are some significant developments and 2nd & 3rd order effects:
1. Iran’s depletion is evident in their ability to launch ballistic missile and drones out of country. Measured against Day One, Iran’s ballistic missile launches are down 89% and drone launches are down 71%. (BTW the Pentagon’s data corroborates this within a few percentage points)
Ballistic missiles:
▪️ Day 1 — 350 units
▪️ Day 2 — 175
▪️ Day 3 — 120
▪️ Day 4 — 50
▪️ Day 5 — 40
Number of launched kamikaze drones:
▪️ Day 1 — 294
▪️ Day 2 — 541
▪️ Day 3 — 200
▪️ Day 4 — 85
▪️ Day 5 — 45
2. Our strikes continue to expand northwest up through the four Kurdish populated provinces in Iran. This is key. Not only are we destroying the existing assets of IRGC Land Forces commands permanently based there, but we are also hitting the additional IRGC Land Forces that Iran has recently been relocating there. And why would they relocate them there? Because the regime fears the combat potential of the several Kurdish resistance groups in that region. We are clearly setting battlefield conditions to enable operations by these groups. However, contrary to various headlines today, no major Kurdish offensive has yet been launched. I’ve been in comms within the last several hours with leadership from two of the major Kurdish resistance groups, and they’ve told me those reports are false. Nevertheless, they are ready.
3. Russia and China Not Happy with The Regime. Let’s take China first. It imports 20% of its oil from Iran, and if Iran succeeds in its threats to shut down the Straits of Hormuz, through which transits nearly 1/3 of global oil, shipments to China are shut off, too. That is why Beijing has reportedly communicated with Tehran to leave the Straits open. As to Russia, Tehran has been a major supplier of weapons to Russian forces in Ukraine. In particular, Tehran’s Shahed drones are among the most utilized drones by Russian forces. Over the near future, this will definitely harm Russian ops in Ukraine, I am happy to say.
