A top-down look at the 23 decisive seats and where I have them ordered for a majority
Four weeks ago, I recapped my 203 to 187 Republican advantage over 390 “safe” seats, and put my assessment on the 22 seats I call leaners.
I am weighing a couple shifts between safe/leaner categories, but my combined assessment would still come out to 209 to 203 favoring the Republican Party before sorting decisive seats. Again, for the ratings system:
Safe: Seat unlikely to be competitive, normally with margins greater than 10 points in 2024.
Leaner: Competitive seat in which various fundamentals (such as a GOP-president midterm instead of a Democrat-president midterm) suggest the likely winner, although an upset could change things.
Decisive: In most cases, tight margins expected. Seats expected to align with the majority winner arranged near the tipping point. In other cases, seats like AK-AL (Alaska At-Large) are part of a decisive GOP hand, but not necessarily a decisive Democrat hand.
Seat Rankings
I have divided the remaining 23 seats, all decisive, into three camps. They are evaluated from a Republican lens, and are ranked as bullish, neutral, or bearish:
Bullish – Seats I evaluate to have a strong chance of going Republican in November based on incumbency, previous margin, candidate quality, voter registration/trend, and quality of election laws.
Neutral – Somewhere in between bullish and bearish, with outcomes largely uncertain.
Bearish – Seats I think are likely to be lost, particularly given 2026’s positioning as a GOP-president midterm. These seats, in most cases, have terrible election laws or have found their Republicans barely holding on in much better electoral climates.
Author’s Note: The following sections do not contain final predictions. Seat colors reflect the current incumbent party, and should not be interpreted as a predicted winner.
Bearish Seats
The good news: 5 of 7 Republican-held seats in the bearish category have an incumbent.
The bad news: With the exception of Nebraska, these states have some of the worst elections anywhere in America. Ballots will be counted in California and Washington for weeks – even into December.
CA-22: David Valadao is an incumbent Republican looking to hold on in a newly redrawn district in central California. Democrats took 59.3% of the primary vote. This is a very unlikely GOP hold and could arguably be listed as a Democrat leaner.
CA-48: Jim Desmond is the newly selected GOP nominee for this redrawn seat in Southern California. This will likely be the most competitive seat in California, and Democrats took 54.9% of the primary vote combined.
CO-8: Gabe Evans is seeking a second term as GOP incumbent. He upset his Democrat opponent in 2024 on the back of a massive Trump surge with Latinos in this district that spans three counties north of Denver. Colorado is a Universal Mail-In Voting state and a very slight shift back to the left, in line with voter registration, will flip this seat.
NE-2: Brinker Harding is replacing long-time GOP incumbent Don Bacon in a district Bacon barely held, even in good years. I am getting KS-3 vibes here in an increasingly slippery urban area that was redrawn recently, but not enough.
PA-7: First-term GOP incumbent Ryan Mackenzie defends against Bob Brooks. Mackenzie knocked out an incumbent by 1.0% in 2024 alongside a Trump statewide win. A Josh Shapiro imminent reelection blowout on the back of a serious mail collection campaign is a serious threat to this seat.
PA-10: Scott Perry ranks as one of the most endangered GOP reps in the country. Somehow he managed to nearly squander a comfortable 2022 victory and win his seat by just 1.2% in 2024, alongside Trump’s statewide win (how?). This is an area that has been shifting left by registration, so it seems like a long shot to me and the most likely Democrat flip in the Keystone State.
VA-2: GOP incumbent Jen Kiggans takes on Elaine Luria in a rematch. A flip of the coin from where I stand, perhaps with a little tailwind thanks to the redistricting referendum pissing everyone off. I don’t like the trend of Virginia Beach or the election laws.
WA-3: Polling looks bad for Democrat incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez because she’s not far enough to the left, but if you know Washington State, you’re taking any good GOP polls with a grain of salt. She has a tough GOP opponent in Senate Minority Leader John Braun, but has the mail-in ballot collection apparatus that kept Joe Kent at bay working for her in a Democrat-favorable year.
Neutral Seats
The good news: 7 of 8 seats have a Republican incumbent running for re-election.
The bad news: 5 of the 8 are in some of the hottest political battlegrounds over recent presidential cycles, 2 are in blue states with loose election laws, and one more (IA-1) barely stayed red despite a Trump landslide in 2024.
AZ-1: Jay Feely won the nomination for the GOP last night to replace David Schweikert, who ditched the seat so he could get driven into the pavement by Andy Biggs in the gubernatorial race. I’m not a big Feely fan despite Trump’s endorsement, but he may have the popular appeal to keep a tough seat red against Amish Shah, who is making his second consecutive attempt at the seat.
AZ-6: One of the truest coin flips in America with Juan Ciscomani looking for a third term. Ciscomani has a tough electorate in Pima County that lists itself as (R) but votes in an increasingly leftward fashion. He’s up against the latest Democrat girl boss, JoAnna Mendoza, who is talking tough as a retired Marine.
IA-1: Scott Perry redux, as incumbent Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks takes on Christina Bohannan for the third straight time. Miller-Meeks won easily in 2022 before winning by 0.2% in 2024 despite Trump destroying Ann Selzer’s career in the Hawkeye State. This one could arguably be in the bearish category, and would be if not for Iowa’s great election laws preventing an eternal count.
MI-7: Just a rough patch of precincts here for Tom Barrett, the Republican who took over Elissa Slotkin’s seat in 2024 alongside Donald Trump’s statewide win. It’s red as far as the eye can see until you get to Lansing, straddling three counties. That is enough to put the Democrats in business, and they’re probably going to have another spook (Bridget Brink) as nominee to hoodwink voters. I’m looking at a 2-point race either way.
NJ-7: Tom Kean (R) won this seat by 5.4% in 2024 with Trump having a massive overperformance in the Garden State. He’s up against Democrat Rebecca Bennett as the state was just exposed yesterday for having 6,600 non-citizens on the rolls. I think this is going to be a close one, with perhaps a slight Democrat edge.
NY-17: Another blue state brawl here with Michael Lawler (R) up against Cait Conley. Lawler won by 6.3% in 2024 alongside a relatively strong Trump performance in the Empire State. He’s seen as one of the more liberal Republicans, but in New York, that may save his campaign. This is a 50/50 coin toss.
PA-8: Widely considered the best opportunity for Republicans to hold one of my decisive seats. Rob Bresnahan had a better margin than Mackenzie in 2024 and has most of the key endorsements in his district, nestled in northeastern Pennsylvania. To make things better, a legitimate Green Party spoiler just jumped in:
“PA CD-8. Bad news for the Dems. Shop owner & ’24 US Sen nom Leila Hazou (Green) jumps into race vs US Rep Rob Bresnahan (R) & Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti (D). This race is a top Dem target.” — Politics1.com (@Politics1com), Jul 19, 2026
WI-3: Derrick Van Orden is defending a very large map with a tough mid-sized city electorate. He’s up against Rebecca Cooke, who he defeated in 2024 while running several points behind Trump’s margin (+6.9%) in the district. Incumbency is Van Orden’s biggest strength, but Democrats have shown a lot of skill in their mail collection game recently, especially if turnout is low. Probably a 60/40 Democrat edge.
Bullish Seats
AK-AL: A very likely Republican win, with Nick Begich running for reelection. It appears in decisive because of a tight margin in 2024, and the urgent need for the GOP to hold it. Mary Peltola, the Democrats’ only real candidate statewide, is running for the Senate and is no threat to retake this seat, which she held thanks to Ranked Choice Voting.
FL-25: Florida’s trend is too much to ignore here, and this district is newly redrawn on the outskirts of Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and West Palm Beach (very tall and skinny). Democrat Congressman Jared Moskowitz moved over to this race and does not yet have a GOP opponent (awaiting primary). Comfortable Trump margin in 2024, but likely much tighter in a midterm. Slight edge to the GOP and held under great election laws.
IA-3: Zach Nunn has a much better trajectory than Miller-Meeks. He expanded his margin from 2022 to 2024 in a Trump +4.3% district, running slightly behind the president at +3.9%. With a left-drift expected in 2026, he doesn’t have a high ceiling and will need to do well in suburban Des Moines (and Dallas County) against Sarah Trone Garriott, who has a strong reputation as an aggressive campaigner.
ME-2: Similar level of confidence as Alaska-At Large. Former governor Paul LePage should flip this seat for the GOP, especially now that incumbent blue dog Jared Golden is out of the way. Maine runs terrible elections, but I don’t think LePage can be stopped. Still, it’s a must have for the GOP to maintain its majority. For reference, this is the district in Maine that Trump won for a separate electoral vote in all three of his runs.
MI-10: After two terms, John James vacated this seat (Macomb and Oakland Counties) to run for governor. It is a district with a serious Trump trend, which the president carried by +6.5% in 2024. What makes me bullish on this seat is the fact that the Democrats have a terrible field to pick from, and the Oakland County Sheriff’s son, Michael Bouchard, is the likely GOP nominee. It is undoubtedly a stronger seat than MI-7, which is in my neutral grouping.
OH-9: This could (and should) finally be the political end of Marcy Kaptur (D), who first sat in Congress in 1983 – before I was born. The Ohio GOP made a back room deal on their new maps, making OH-9 a likely GOP flip, slightly reddening OH-1, and giving the Democrats more blue turf in OH-13 (which will save them there). Derek Merrin is the GOP nominee for this seat, which covers the northwest/Toledo in a state with strong election laws.
TX-34: Vicente Gonzalez (D) knows the heat is on, which is why he’s become a social conservative with his voting record. The new Texas maps are good for a pickup of three seats and make, Henry Cuellar’s TX-28 playable in the future (likely not this year), while TX-34 is a tossup. Eric Flores is the GOP nominee in this newly drawn district, running from Cameron County (Brownsville) up to Nueces County (cutting out core Corpus Christi).
Summary
I have the GOP at 209 seats after safe and leaner categories are considered. AK-AL and ME-2 are two layups out of the decisive seats, making the GOP floor a likely 211 seats.
Sweeping the 7 bullish seats would have Republicans at 216 seats, needing just two seats out of the tough neutral and bearish categories, which feature 13 GOP incumbents. I do not agree with assessments showing a blue wave thanks to the newly drawn districts, and maintain that the majority winner will have between 218 and 223 seats.
The GOP maximum is 232 seats, if they sweep every decisive seat and don’t squander any leaners. The Democrat maximum is 226 seats, based on the same criteria.
Seth Keshel, MBA is a Fellow at the Gold Institute for International Strategy and a retired Army Captain. He publishes Captain K’s Corner on Substack.
